Will 2025 be synonymous with peace in Ukraine? After almost three years of war, and perhaps a million soldiers killed or wounded on both sides of the front, the belligerents are exhausted. The conditions for a settlement of the conflict seem to be getting closer, but what scenarios are on the table?
Difficult forUkraine to continue the fight: at the start of 2025 the balance of power is not favorable to it and the UNITED STATES its main support, could discard. The ceasefire is not far away, believes Jean Pierre Maulny, deputy director of the Institute of International and Strategic Relations, “ most certainly, we will move towards a ceasefire because the President of the United States wants it and because I think that the belligerents can find an interest in it. The Ukrainians, because they are in difficulty on the ground, the Russians to obtain their gain. And then on the other hand, because they too, this war costs them in the long term, they are in a war economy, they cannot maintain such an effort forever. ».
During the work, the sale continues
But the opening of talks does not necessarily silence the guns, because often during the works ” the sale continues », quips the diplomat Jean de Gliniasty: “ As one of the two parties does not want a ceasefire, firstly because it is scoring points, it is Russia which is currently nibbling away. And so the more time passes, the more it will work in its favor. And then on the other hand, Russia wants a peace treaty which consolidates its territorial gains while the Ukrainians, now that Trump is here, they subscribe to the idea of a ceasefire. But a temporary ceasefire, since they reserve the possibility of recovering their territories either by diplomacy or by war. So here there are two different positions and it is clear that while we clarify this, “the sale continues”, that is to say unfortunately, the war and the dead and the wounded and all that… »
No GI’s on Ukrainian soil says Donald Trump
Difficult in these conditions to find a path towards peace. This is why the question of security guarantees offered to kyiv is crucial, insists geopolitologist Pascal Boniface: “ If Ukraine is forced to cede the territories, we can also understand that they need guarantees for the future because they have very moderate confidence in Putin’s promises. And therefore for this, security guarantees must be given. And the presence of French and British troops in a country that is no longer at war with Russia could have a deterrent effect against Russia. Since in this case, it would be Russia which should take the initiative in the conflict and not France or Great Britain ».
The Russia facing two powers equipped with nuclear weapons like the France and the Great Britainwould also have much more difficulty raising the nuclear threat. It remains that Donald Trump warned, even in the event of a final peace agreement, he will not send soldiers to Ukraine. So all eyes, and rightly so, are turning towards Paris and London, an alternative to NATO, explains Jean de Gliniasty: “ At the time of the ersatz Istanbul peace agreement, which had been almost approved in April 2022, it was expected that there would be guarantees from the member countries of the Security Council and it turns out that, members of the Security Council, France and England are also members of NATO. So it’s a way of getting around what is a we cannotthat is to say an impossibility for the Russians who cannot accept that NATO as such guarantees Ukraine and plays a role in peace in Ukraine ».
A provisional peace
It is also possible that in 2025 the war will continue; “ any pressure for negotiations too soon harms Ukraine » says Kaja Kallas, head of European diplomacy. It is also possible that agreements will only lead to a provisional peace, indicates fatalistically, Jean Pierre Maulny: “ If it is a ceasefire, they will not lose face because they will always say, Ukraine remains one and whole with Donbass. If it’s a formal peace deal that redefines the borders, they will lose. So maybe there can be an in-between. You know, in peace agreements we always find solutions to try to satisfy both parties. It is perhaps up to the negotiators to find the solution that will satisfy Moscow and kyiv. But we can fear that it will be shaky in the long term and that it will only be a temporary peace, with a temporary one that can last a long time. ».
A Korean-style scenario in a way, with a demilitarized front line running from the north to the south of Ukraine.
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