1X2 prediction: which team to bet on?
Brentford win the match
1. Brentford has a better winning probability: According to the statistics provided, Brentford has a winning probability of 40.4%, which is higher than Southampton’s winning probability which is 31.31%.
2. Brentford’s away performance: Brentford has a better away performance compared to Southampton’s home performance. Even though Brentford haven’t won many games lately, they have managed to hold their opponents to a low score, conceding just 3 goals in their last 5 away games.
3. Southampton’s defensive weakness: Southampton’s performance at home has been disappointing defensively for the last 5 matches where they have conceded 7 goals. With a low defensive potential of 71%, this gap could be exploited by Brentford.
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Over/Under 2.5: that even?
Less than 2.5 goals in the match
1. Southampton’s home match stats clearly show offensive weakness, averaging just 0.4 goals per game. Additionally, in their last 5 home games, they have only managed to score more than 2 goals in one game.
2. Brentford, for their part, showed a fairly low offensive average also in their away matches, with an average of 1.2 goals per match. In their last 5 away matches, Brentford have not scored more than 2 goals in any match.
3. Attacking potential is relatively low for both teams, at 14% for Southampton and 43% for Brentford. This suggests that neither team is particularly dominant on the attacking front, which is often necessary to get a game over 2.5 goals.
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BTTS: Will both teams score?
Both teams score: Yes
1. Southampton’s match history shows that they have scored at least one goal in 60% of their last 5 home matches. Brentford have also scored a goal in 80% of their last 5 away games.
2. Brentford’s offensive statistics show that they have an attacking efficiency rate of 43% in their away matches. Additionally, their defense allows about 1.8 goals on average per game.
3. As for Southampton, although their offensive efficiency is low at home (14%), they managed to score 4 goals in 5 games. Additionally, their defense has been quite slack, conceding 7 goals in the last 5 home games, which increases the chances of Brentford scoring at least one goal.
Which bet offers an attractive value bet?
Less than 2.5 goals in the match
1. Based on the last 5 matches, Southampton have a low offensive output with an average of 0.4 goals per match, suggesting a low score.
2. Brentford, despite a better offensive performance, seem to maintain a solid defensive level conceding only 1.2 goals per game on their travels.
3. The goals conceded stats for Southampton (2 goals on average) and Brentford (1.8 goals on average) remain relatively low, suggesting a low-goal game.
Betting on the correct score
Southampton 1-1 Brentford
1. Looking at previous matches, Southampton tend to draw their home matches, which translates to a draw probability of 28.28%. Furthermore, Brentford have drawn 40% of their away matches. This data suggests high chances for a draw between these two teams.
2. Based on the goals scored and conceded by both teams in their last 5 matches, we can see that Southampton’s offensive potential is low, with an average of 0.4 goals per match compared to 1.2 for Brentford. At the same time, Southampton concedes an average of 2 goals per match compared to 1.8 for Brentford. This inequality in offensive and defensive potential suggests a rather balanced match, with probably few goals scored.
3. Regarding the potential goal total in the match, with odds of 1.61 for over 2.5 goals and 69.7% probability for under 3.5 goals, and 82.83% probability for under 4.5 goals. It seems more likely that the match will end with fewer goals, thus reinforcing the hypothesis of a 1-1 draw.
Analysis and key facts of the match
The shape of the teams
Southampton has a series of draws at home, no victory in its last 5 matches. Brentford, for their part, are struggling to win away from home with no success in their last 5 outings.
Southampton’s defense is porous at home, conceding an average of 2 goals per game. Brentford show superior attacking potential, averaging 1.2 goals per game away from home.
The odds suggest a Brentford victory at 40.4%. The predictions are for a draw or Brentford winning at 68.69%.
Let’s expect a match with at least 1.5 goals (probability of 79.8%) but with less than 3.5 goals (probability of 69.7%). Both teams could score during the match according to the predictions (probability of 61.62%).
Southampton’s last home game ended in defeat against West Ham United. For their part, Brentford drew against Brighton on their last trip.
Conclusion: This match could lean in favor of Brentford with a winning probability of 40.4%. However, the possibility of a draw is also to be considered. It is very likely that there will be more than 1.5 goals in this match.
The number of potential goals
Southampton are struggling at home. In 5 matches, no victories, 4 goals scored and 7 conceded. Offensive potential at 14%, defensive at 71%. Surprising to see the club without a victory, but not under pressure with 5 draws.
Brentford, away, are also winless. 3 goals scored and conceded in 5 matches. Offensive and defensive performance at 43% and 64% respectively. Goals/games ratio suggests a more solid attack than Southampton.
Compared to the chances of winning, Brentford is slightly ahead with 40.4%, compared to 31.31% for Southampton. A draw also seems plausible at 28.28%.
Let’s look at the goals now. More than 1.5 goals in the match has a probability of 79.8%. You can expect to see nets shaking.
In conclusion, Brentford presents a more solid offensive. However, Southampton’s draw trend at home could see the match end in a draw. A low-scoring game seems likely.
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Our conclusions and prediction for this match
In conclusion, based on all the key statistics and facts analyzed, it looks like the match between Southampton and Brentford is potentially balanced. Brentford have a slight advantage with a win probability of 40.4%. However, the significant number of draws recorded by Southampton at home suggests that a draw is entirely possible.
As for the number of goals, the relatively weak offensive performances of both teams suggest a low-scoring match. The most likely is that there will be less than 2.5 goals in this match, despite both teams being likely to score.
Overall, this match promises to be close without seeing a massive deployment of offensives. Punters should therefore consider the possibility of a draw, a Brentford victory and especially less than 2.5 goals in this match when placing their bets.
