January 4, 2025. 8pm. Lisbonne. Luz Stadium
Portuguese Championship. Day 17
Benfica (Lisbonne) – Braga
Possible absences : Renato Sanches, Paulo Oliveira
The first big match of 2025 in Portugal will feature a clash between Benfica and Braga. This meeting could have been one of the most intriguing of the season, if it were not for the serious crisis affecting the “Archbishops”. Braga are renowned for their ability to steal points from Benfica, having often thwarted their title hopes in the past, but this year the scenario seems different. The visitors might have the chance to unsettle the hosts, but the match is unlikely to be as thrilling and spectacular as we usually expect from clashes between these two teams.
Benfica
In a surprising turn of events, Benfica suffered a defeat against Sporting in one of the crucial Primeira Liga matches and their final match of 2024. The result comes as a major blow to the club’s ambitions, as the ‘Eagles’ have now slipped to third place. It’s still too early to draw any firm conclusions as we’re only halfway through the season, but losing to a key rival in a derby is frustrating under any circumstances.
However, the toughest times could still await Benfica. The Lisbon club must navigate January without losing, both in terms of results and transfers. First of all, the “Eagles” will face Braga twice – once in the league and another time in the semi-final of the League Cup. If all goes well, they will then face Sporting or Porto in the League Cup final. After that, they will struggle with a match in the Portuguese Cup, a match against Famalicão in the Primeira Liga and then the Champions League, where Benfica will have to earn points against Barça and Juventus. In total, Benfica could face up to 8 matches throughout January (if they reach the League Cup final).
However, a busy schedule is not Benfica’s only concern. The club could potentially lose three key players this winter. António Silva found himself out of the starting XI due to his desire to leave Benfica. He was expected to leave this summer, but a poor performance with the national team at Euro 2024 reduced his transfer value. Benfica initially hoped to sell Silva for 80-100 million euros, but now offers of 30-40 million euros are being considered. As the conflict between the player and the club intensifies, the chances of him being sold diminish. Besides Silva, Benfica could also lose Bester, who is looking to return to Germany, with big clubs in that country ready to buy him for 15-20 million euros. This would be a significant loss for the “Eagles”. Álvaro Carreras is also attracting interest from Bayern Munich. The departure of such players could significantly weaken Benfica and severely impact their title chances.
Braga
Braga’s main asset (among other strong clubs in Portugal) has always been stability. Club management did not rush the sacking of coaches after early setbacks, showing support for contracted players. This customary approach left many surprised when Braga began behaving strangely after failing to retain former coach Arthur Jorge. The coach who had led the club to the Champions League decided to leave for Brazil, where he became champion and won the Copa Libertadores.
It was obvious that it would be difficult to compensate for such a loss. However, youth team coach Rui Duarte handled the end of the season quite well, with 4 wins and 3 losses in 7 games at Braga – including two defeats against Porto and Benfica. Nevertheless, the club opted to look for a more experienced coach, hiring Daniel Sousa. This specialist was fired after only 4 matches! He managed to win twice against Maccabi in the Europa League qualifiers, but after two draws the club decided to part ways with him. The bizarre and somewhat absurd behavior of Braga’s management inevitably led to significant problems. Therefore, they urgently turned to Carlos Carvalhal, who took the reins of Braga for the third time. The 59-year-old coach has not particularly impressed in his two previous attempts. He managed to win the Portuguese Cup with the “Archbishops”, but Braga’s performances in the league were far from better. Currently, a similar situation is occurring. The club, often considered the fourth strongest in Portugal, finds itself out of the fight for a place in the top three alongside giants such as Porto and Benfica, as was the case under Arthur Jorge. Braga are also underperforming in the Europa League, at risk of finishing outside the top 24, which could represent a serious financial blow for the club. However, there are no plans to fire a third coach in the last 6 months, giving Carvalhal a chance to rectify the situation.
Benfica vs Braga: Predicted teams
Benfica vs Braga : Author’s prediction
Under the leadership of Bruno Lage, Benfica have rarely treated their supporters to exhilarating victories, even against weaker teams. Although Braga is currently in crisis, they still have an excellent squad. I am convinced that the visitors will play a defensive game, making it difficult for Benfica to attack. I propose a bet on less than 3 goals in total.
