January 3, 2025. 10:00 p.m. Valence. “Mestalla”.
La Liga 2024-25. Day 12
Valence against Real Madrid
Suspensions : Ashes (Valence)
Injured: Giorgi Mamardashvili, Mouctar Diakhaby, Thierry Correia, Jose Luis Gaya, Rafa Mir – Dani Carvajal, Eder Militao, David Alaba
Unsure: Fran Perez (Valencia)
The new calendar year in Spanish football begins with three matches in the Copa del Rey, culminating in the rescheduled La Liga match between Valencia and Real Madrid, originally scheduled for early November but postponed due to tragic events in the Valencia region following a natural disaster. Further cup matches will take place over the weekend, followed by the Super Cup and the final day of the first half of the season, helping everyone get back into the usual rhythm after the Christmas and New Year break.
Valence
The “Goats” enter the new year with a new coach, with Ruben Baraja having been released after the last game before Christmas. He was replaced by 41-year-old Carlos Corberan, who had previously coached English side West Bromwich Albion. Interestingly, the Valencia management, which saved on transfers and other expenses, paid almost 3 million euros as compensation to the English club for the coach. In addition, the new coach was promised reinforcements during the winter transfer window. The threat of relegation is not taken lightly by anyone. Furthermore, active rumors suggest that Peter Lim is considering selling the club, and to avoid financial losses, it is crucial that the team stays in La Liga.
Carlos Corberan is a product of Valencia’s youth system (having played as a goalkeeper in the junior team), but his playing career did not flourish. His coaching journey began as assistant to Raul Caneda, followed by solo stints at Cypriot clubs, Doxa and Ermis, a few years in Marcelo Bielsa’s staff, then in England with Huddersfield, followed by a stint at Greek club Olympiakos and finally to West Bromwich Albion since October 2022. Now, the Spaniard returns to his country to save a club close to his heart.
Los Ches finished the first half of the season with a five-game winless streak, recording three defeats and two draws. Their last matches included draws against direct relegation rivals Espanyol and Alaves. Initially, under Baraja’s management, the team had managed a 1-1 draw against Espanyol, but in their final home game of the year they drew 2-2 against the Basques, coming back twice to the score. The hosts had equalized for the first time in the 70th minute thanks to a Luis Rioja penalty against his former team, and in injury time Dani Gomez saved a point for Valencia. The draw allowed Los Ches to catch up with Valladolid and overtake them on goal difference, giving them a chance to avoid finishing the first half of the season at the bottom of the table.
Real Madrid
Los Blancos lost to Athletic in Bilbao at the start of December, losing the chance of taking the top spot. Even if they win this rescheduled match, it seems unlikely that they will become winter champions, given that Atletico subsequently won their match on matchday 19, pushing Madrid further down the table. A surprise draw in the derby against Rayo Vallecano (3-3) also contributed to this loss of leadership. Before that, Carlo Ancelotti’s team convinced by beating Girona away (3-0) and achieving an extremely important victory in Bergamo against Atalanta, winning 3-2.
In their last two games of the past year, Real also showed their ability to score. On December 18, they celebrated their second trophy of the season – the FIFA Club World Cup, calmly defeating the Mexican team Pachuca with a score of 3-0. A few days later, the “Blancos” again confidently handled Sevilla at home, although they conceded two goals in a 4-2 victory. Kylian Mbappé opened the scoring, followed by a dazzling long-range finish from Federico Valverde. The winning goal was scored by Rodrygo, with Brahim Diaz also scoring, replacing the suspended Brazilian international Vinicius Junior. Under other circumstances, this victory would have allowed Real to regain the lost lead, but unexpectedly Atletico won at Barcelona, leaving Madrid temporarily out of first place in the table.
Valence against Real Madrid : Peripheral Alignments
Valencia faces significant staffing problems. Their starting goalkeeper Giorgi Mamardashvili, key full-backs Thierry Correia and Jose Luis Gaya, central defender Mouctar Diakhaby (who is expected to return from a serious knee injury soon, suffered in their previous home match against Real in early March 2024) , and striker Rafa Mir are all out due to injuries. Additionally, midfielder Pepelu will be absent due to a suspension for accumulating yellow cards. Additionally, the participation of midfielder Fran Perez is currently uncertain. As for Real Madrid, they continue to be without injured duo Dani Carvajal and Eder Militao, and David Alaba remains unavailable to play at the moment.
Valence against Real Madrid : Author’s prediction
It has become somewhat traditional for Real not to win at least once a season against Valencia. This trend has persisted for many years, with a few exceptions. The last time the Madrid team managed to win twice in one season was in the 2021-22 season, and before that it was in 2010-11. Undoubtedly, Carlo Ancelotti’s team are favorites for this match, but there should be no doubt that the ‘Goats’ will put up a fight against the reigning Spanish champions even without several key players. Additionally, with a new coach at the helm, there is often a positive effect on the team’s performance. Therefore, we should keep in mind the possibility of the favorite losing points, but it is hard to imagine that Real can afford not to win against this Valencia team. So, I predict an away victory for Real by a margin of 2 to 3 goals, accompanied by a lot of cards. Additionally, the interaction between the Mestalla crowd and Vinicius Junior will be worth watching.
