The triumphant return of Donald Trump to the White House, starting January 20, poses a series of major challenges for Europeans. Regardless of the personality of the new president, major trends in the policy he intends to pursue – now with the support of both houses of Congress – are already emerging.
A commercial challenge, since the new administration has unwaveringly announced for months its intention to raise new tariff barriers, especially against China, but also against its own allies. This renewed trade tension in the name of “America First”, after the aggressive tax policy already carried out by Joe Biden to attract foreign investment, exposes us to strong turbulence.
The challenge is then security since, on the same note, the American military commitment on European soil seems destined to be gradually reduced. Both in terms of troops deployed and in terms of resources allocated. Which, mechanically, will imply a significantly increased defense effort on the part of the Europeans. Particularly painful, in the tight context of our public finances.
Finally, the so-called peace pipe that Donald Trump intends to offer to Vladimir Putin places us before an unprecedented situation. The war of invasion of Ukraine launched by Russia in February 2022 has, for the first time since 1945, undermined the strategic stability of our continent; the exacerbated nationalism of Donald Trump calls on us to come out of the limbo of Pax Americana.
Musk ou Trump ?
-In short, eighty years after the end of the Second World War, Europeans are faced with their responsibilities. Are we ready to fully assume the security of the continent, whatever the vagaries of the American guarantee? Are we ready to do it together? These two fundamental questions are unfortunately not always at the top of the electoral debates in our old democracies.
There is, in addition, a fourth, more insidious challenge posed by Trump's return to office. A political challenge. On January 20, Viktor Orbán and Giorgia Meloni will feature prominently on the podium on inauguration day, as a symbol. The heartfelt allies of the new American administration are the representatives of the most radical European right. What could be more normal? All European progressives were happy to stand with Bill Clinton in the legendary 1990s.
With one difference, however. Bill Clinton embodied not only the American hyperpower victorious in the Cold War, but also a certain American idea of democracy. Sensitive subject. Because if the European lefts have, since 1945, often denounced American hegemony, the guarantee provided by Washington in democratic matters was a crucial argument for the transatlantic relationship. Crucial and convincing, in the face of the Soviet dictatorship.
Today, when Elon Musk promotes brutal interference in our electoral processes, as he tries to do in Germany by supporting the AfD, he acts no more and no less like Vladimir Putin when he tries to destabilize a poll in Romania. This is where the great American unknown lies, beyond the whims of Donald Trump. Will a new imperial logic take precedence in Washington over the traditional democratic guarantee of the “free world”? The zeitgeist and Trump's style seem to lead straight there.
