After a bright New Year's Day, conditions will become more disrupted again this January 2. Also, wind gusts will be sustained, even strong. Rain and snow will also return.
Chronology of the rain-snow episode
At the start of the day, temperatures will generally be between 3 and 6°C in the plains. Furthermore, a rainy front will approach the region from the northwest from 2-3 a.m. The rains will initially affect the north of the Meuse as well as the Pays-Haut. In the following hours, this front will gradually shift towards the south. Also, the entire northwestern half of Lorraine will be affected around 6-7 a.m. The rains will generally be of moderate intensity, or even locally sustained.
At the same time, the southwest wind will strengthen significantly. At dawn, gusts will reach up to 60-70 km/h (locally 80 km/h) in the plains. In the Vosges Massif, gusts of around 80-90 km/h (100-120 km/h towards the crests) could be observed.
From 10 a.m., the entire region will be affected by precipitation. Furthermore, the air mass will gradually cool from the north. Also, snow will appear from 10-11 a.m. in northern Lorraine (north of the Meuse, Pays-Haut and west of the Moselle). However, the temperatures will be too mild to hope for ground stability (temperatures will then be around 1-2°C). In the Vosges, the rain-snow limit will then be around 600-700 meters above sea level.
At the same time, the wind will turn to the northwest and weaken.
From 3 p.m., precipitation will stop in the northwest of the region, the Pays-Haut and in the far west of the Moselle, but will continue in the rest of the region. These will occur everywhere in the form of melting snow, with temperatures expected to drop significantly again (values often around 1-2°C in the plains). Also, the plateaus, as well as the coasts of Meuse and Moselle, may whiten. However, the hold is more uncertain in the plains and in the valleys.
The front will evacuate from the south from 6-7 p.m. Behind, only a few snow showers may still occur, particularly in the southern half of Lorraine (southern Meurthe-et-Moselle and Vosges). The roads will sometimes be slippery, with temperatures dropping back to negative temperatures from 7-8 p.m.
What is the total amount of rain and snow in Lorraine?
By Friday at midnight, cumulative precipitation will generally be between 10 and 30 millimeters (40 millimeters in the Vosges Massif). The largest accumulations (outside the Vosges Massif) will be observed in Meuse as well as in the center of Moselle (Bouzonvillois, Saint-Avold / Forbach sector, etc.).
By the middle of the night from Thursday to Friday, a thin layer of snow (from a few traces to 1-2 centimeters) could be observed in Lorraine. The risk is especially present in the Vosges department, in a large eastern half of Moselle, in the south of Meurthe-et-Moselle and, to a lesser extent, in the Pays-Haut.
On the Vosges ridges (beyond 1100-1200 meters above sea level), up to 20-25 additional centimeters may be deposited. Around 1000 meters, 10 to 20 centimeters of fresh snow may be deposited. Lower in altitude, the new layer will be around 8-10 centimeters.
