The 2025 finance law introduces reforms for the hydrocarbon sector, but seems out of step with market reality. In January 2025, a slight increase in fuel prices is expected, after a previous increase in December 2024, which raises questions about the effectiveness of the law in the face of these fluctuations.
From January 1, 2025, Morocco could observe a slight increase in fuel prices, with an increase of 20 cents for diesel and 17 cents for gasoline. This increase would be the second in the space of a month, after that of December 2024, when the price of diesel had already increased by 20 cents and that of gasoline by 10 cents. This development raises questions about the effectiveness of the 2025 finance law in regulating fluctuations in prices at the pump. Indeed, although this law brings reforms in the hydrocarbon sector, it seems out of step with current market challenges.
Experts emphasize that the oil market remains particularly volatile, making any reliable forecast difficult to establish. “The instability of the oil market makes any reliable forecast almost impossible,” they say. Despite ongoing challenges, such as weak demand globally, a slight recovery in oil prices has been observed recently. On the local market, this dynamic could translate into a modest increase in pump prices, estimated at between 10 and 15 cents per liter. However, this increase will depend on the strategic decisions taken by oil companies and is therefore not inevitable.
The evolution of fuel prices during the year 2024 followed a downward trend. At the start of the year, the price of a barrel of Brent was around $70, before stabilizing between $68 and $72 at the end of the year. This drop allowed a significant reduction in prices at the pump, going from 13.47 dirhams per liter for diesel in January to around 11.27 dirhams in December for gasoline. However, the recent trend suggests instability that could once again affect consumers’ budgets.
Another important point of the 2025 Finance Law concerns the fight against the informal fuel market. A measure aimed at introducing chemical traceability of fuels had been planned to better control products in circulation, in particular those from B to B sales. However, this reform was postponed until 2026 due to technical constraints, in particular the absence suitable infrastructure, such as specialized laboratories to carry out fuel compatibility tests. Calls for tenders had been launched to create these laboratories, but they did not produce the expected results, thus delaying the implementation of this measure.
Although the 2025 finance law seeks to regulate the hydrocarbon sector, technical and logistical obstacles remain, preventing rapid and effective implementation of the proposed reforms.
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