Hmeimim, the Russian bridge to Africa is increasingly fragile

The air base of Hmeimim in Syria it is not just a military infrastructure, but the beating heart of Russian strategy in the Mediterranean and Africa. Built in 2015 in Latakia province, it has become an essential outpost for Moscow, ensuring cost-effective economic, political and military projection of power. From this base, a network connecting Russia to its strategic interests in Africa takes off, but now, according to Bloomberg, this vital infrastructure risks crumbling, with potentially devastating consequences for Russia's presence in key countries such as the Central African Republic, Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso Faso and Sudan.

Hmeimim is the symbol of Russia's ability to operate beyond national borders with streamlined and reliable logistics. From here aircraft loaded with equipment, weapons and personnel depart headed for African theaters where Moscow has built strategic alliances. The base allows for a rapid rotation of forces and the transport of war materials to countries such as the Central African Republic, where Wagner group mercenaries are active, or Mali, which has welcomed Moscow as an alternative to the retreating Western powers. It is thanks to Hmeimim that Russia was able to fill the void left by France and the United States, strengthening its influence with governments often looking for non-conditioning partners. Hmeimim's ability to support this network of operations has been a key element of Russian strategy, which has been built around a mixed approach of military support, economic diplomacy and political propaganda.

Anas el-Gomati, director of the Sadeq Institute in Libyawarns that Russia is walking a tightrope. Without Hmeimim and the reliable airlift it represents, Moscow's entire operational capability risks collapsing. The base guarantees not only logistics, but also the strategic credibility of a Russia that presents itself in Africa as an alternative to the former colonial powers and the United States. Its closure or downsizing would put the entire Russian project at risk in countries such as the Central African Republic, where Wagner manages security in exchange for access to mineral resources, or in Sudan, where Moscow has used gold trafficking to support their finances, or again in Niger and Burkina Faso, where the new military regimes see Russia as a bulwark against the West.

The fragility of this strategy becomes evident when looking at the big picture. Russia has created a significant presence in Africa due to its ability to move quickly and discreetly. Hmeimim has made it possible to circumvent international restrictions and support military and paramilitary operations in regions where the weakness of local institutions has favored the entry of external actors. However, the risk is that this model proves unsustainable if the Syrian base were to lose its operational centrality. The civil war in Syria, Western pressures and the very limits of a network built on finite resources make the Russian position extremely precarious. A collapse of the logistics network linked to Hmeimim would lead to an immediate weakening of the Russian presence in Africa and a loss of influence that could be quickly exploited by other actors, ready to fill the gaps left by Moscow.

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Russia's role in Africa has never been so in the balance. Without Hmeimim, the great project of Russian projection on the continent risks vanishing, leaving room for new balances where Moscow would struggle to carve out a place for itself. Hmeimim is not just a base, but a symbol and mechanism that holds Russian strategy together. If this mechanism fails, the entire system risks collapsing, and for Russia it would be not only a military but a geopolitical defeat.