Everyone in the Conference League wants to avoid Chelsea. For this reason, the path is clear for Fiorentina: win in Guimaraes it would mean – almost certainly – avoiding the Blues until the final act in Wroclaw, scheduled for May 28th. Because in case of success – and in case Legia Warsaw and Lugano, on equal points with the Viola but with an inferior goal difference, did not win in goleada against Djurgarden and Pafos respectively – Fiorentina would be sure of at least the first two places. Then, to ward off the blues bugaboo, Palladino and his team should make sure that Chelsea, playing against Shamrock Rovers, is not in the mood for Christmas presents: with a draw against the Irish, the London Lions are sure of first place.
Second place therefore becomes coveted, by Fiorentina but also by Vitoria Guimaraes (currently second). This is why tonight in the match between Gigliati and Conquistadores there will not be a draw. But the structure of the draw, which will be clearer with tomorrow’s draw in Nyon, suggests more about the possible path from March onwards. In the event of second place, the draw to watch will be the one involving two intersections: the one between the 15th and the 16th and the one between the 17th and the 18th – with 90′ to go, Heideneim-Copenhagen or Betis-Panatinaikos -. For Kean and his teammates there is not only the Chelsea scare to avoid: the Viola are not yet 100% sure of avoiding the playoffs in February. It will be – barring a tsunami of goals from Apoel and Rapid Vienna in tonight’s matches – in the event of a draw (which would also qualify Vitoria for the round of 16, but the pasteis de nata seems averted due to the ‘blues’ phobia shared by the two clubs ), but at that point he could slide to Chelsea’s side of the board. A bit of data: Fiorentina is third in the standings with 12 points after 5 days and already in this way, according to Football Meets Data statistics, they have a 55% chance of qualifying directly for the round of 16. A percentage that would become 99% with a draw in Guimaraes and 100% with a victory in Portugal.
If two or more teams finish the championship phase on equal points, then, as provided for in article 18 of the competition regulations, the following criteria applyin the following order, to determine their ranking:
Greater goal difference in the championship phase
Highest number of goals scored in the championship phase
Highest number of away goals scored in the league stage
Most wins in the championship phase
Highest number of away wins in the championship phase
Greater number of points obtained collectively by opponents in the championship phase
Collective goal difference higher than opponents in the championship phase
Highest number of goals scored collectively by opponents in the championship phase
Lowest disciplinary score based on only yellow and red cards received by players and team staff in all matches in the championship phase (red card = 3 points, yellow card = 1 point, expulsion for two yellow cards in one match = 3 points)
Higher ranking
