Forget the rates of 10 years ago
The year 2023 was even marked by a negative record in terms of credit production, notes Philippe Ledent, economist at ING. 2024 is broadly the same, but thanks to gradually easing interest rates, the number of real estate transactions increased significantly again in the second quarter.
ING sees this as the beginnings of a real recovery in 2025. “Despite the drop in rates announced by the European Central Bank, there will be no impact on long-term rates, because this drop was anticipated, notes Philippe Ledent . First, people will have to digest the fact that mortgage rates will not return to their 2015-2016 levels. But then, thanks to indexation which will continue to boost revenues. hypothesis is that buyers will return to the market.” Especially since political measures, such as the reduction of registration fees in Wallonia, should stimulate demand for housing. Even if ING specialists do not exclude that the elimination of housing vouchers could weaken this effect.
Real estate: a 3.1% price increase in Namur during the last quarter, according to Immoweb
Prices rising in 2025 and 2026
In any case, driven by a new indexation of salaries from January, it is indeed an increase in the number of transactions that ING is considering in the analysis of its survey. And this recovery in the real estate market, combined with a persistent lack of available properties, will put pressure on residential housing prices.
“Real estate prices are expected to increase more strongly again, of around 3% in 2025 and 3.8% in 2026” indicates Alissa Lefebre, economist specializing in real estate at ING and author of the study.
Energy renovation: the “price effect” above all
According to the ING study, 74% of homeowners surveyed have taken at least one measure to make their home more energy efficient over the past three years. These primarily involve investments in thermal insulation (38%), purchases of less energy-consuming devices (35%), installation of photovoltaic panels (30%) and work related to heating ( 20%).
It is a step towards the European objectives of climate neutrality in 2050. But it remains insufficient and, above all, it is not this environmental objective which motivates owners. “In fact, the main reasons that push Belgians to renovate are saving on energy bills (65%), improving living comfort (16%) and increasing the value of housing (10% )”, indicates Alissa Lefebre, real estate specialist at ING. Elements which also explain that only 38% of owners who rent their property have invested to make their homes more energy efficient over the last three years.
Regarding renovation, households respond above all to “an energy price effect”, summarizes Philippe Ledent. Just look at the interest in heat pumps which peaked in 2021-2022 before falling sharply as gas prices fell.
