Global demand for coal reached a record level in 2024 but is expected to stabilize until 2027 thanks to the rise of renewable energies to meet the growing demand for electricity, the International Energy Agency estimated ( OIE) Wednesday.
“After reaching a record level in 2024”, at 8.77 billion tonnes, “global demand for coal should stabilize in the coming years” due to the strong increase in renewable energies, writes the IEA in its annual report on coal in the world, which covers the period 2024-2027.
Global coal trade is also expected to reach an unprecedented level, with 1.55 billion tonnes, while prices remain 50% higher than the average observed between 2017 and 2019.
Asia in the center
China is a “key player”: a third of the coal consumed worldwide is burned in its power plants.
But demand for coal continues to increase in certain emerging economies, such as India, Indonesia and Vietnam, in line with economic and demographic growth, underlines the IEA.
“Asia remains at the center of international coal trade”, with all the largest importing countries (China, India, Japan, Korea and Vietnam), while among the largest exporters are Indonesia and Australia .
In contrast, in most advanced economies, coal demand has already peaked and is expected to continue to decline until 2027, the IEA says.
Clean energy and weather
The only glimmer of hope in this panorama, the “massive deployment” of renewable energies, including in China, “will slow down the growth in the use of coal despite a growing demand for electricity”, estimates the agency.
>> Read also: More than half of electricity will be of low-carbon origin before 2030, according to the IEA
Beijing continued to diversify its energy sector in 2024, with the construction of nuclear power plants and an “immense expansion” of the country’s photovoltaic and wind capacity. “This should help limit the increase in coal consumption until 2027,” the IEA further anticipates.
But, “weather factors – particularly in China, the world’s largest consumer of the fuel – will have a major impact on short-term trends in coal demand”, warns the director of energy markets at the AIE, Keisuke Sadamori.
Consequence of these uncertainties: coal demand in China by 2027 could vary by 140 million tonnes up or down compared to forecasts, depending for example on winter temperatures.
This record in global coal demand echoes another: 2024 will be the first year beyond the threshold of 1.5°C of warming compared to the pre-industrial period, the long-term limit set by the Paris agreement , according to the European Copernicus Observatory.
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