INTERVIEW. War in Ukraine: “The Orechnik missile embodies a demonstration of force…” Should we fear the new weapon brandished by Putin?

The United States warned, Thursday, December 12, that Russia could strike Ukraine again “in the coming days” with an Orechnik hypersonic missile, in response to the American-made missile launches launched by kyiv against it two days ago earlier.

Since November 21, when Oreshnik was first fired on Dnipro, the international community has been concerned that Russia is in possession of a missile capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Especially since Moscow revised its nuclear doctrine last September to be able to target any state that would lend support to Ukraine. However, the Russian nuclear threat already existed before the appearance of the Orechnik, according to Christian Maire, associate researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS).

The deployment of the Orechnik caused surprise and concern internationally. How does it differ from other missiles?

Before November 21, Russian authorities had never flown the Orechnik, not even to test it. Its operational use was a surprise. As for its characteristics, Russian authorities have stated that the Orechnik is capable of reaching a speed of Mach 10, or approximately 12,350 km/h (3 kilometers per second), with a maximum range of around 5,500 km to 5,800 km. In addition to being able to carry both conventional warheads and nuclear warheads, it is equipped with submunitions classified as hypersonic, which makes it in theory very difficult to intercept.

Does the use of Orechnik mean that Russia is ready to use nuclear weapons?

In reality, the nuclear threat existed before the appearance of the Orechnik. One of its predecessors, the Yars, could travel 11,000 to 12,000 km while carrying three nuclear warheads. The advantage of a missile like the Orechnik, however, is that it is optimized for intermediate range and has the capability for a non-nuclear strike.

Why did Vladimir Putin decide to use it at this stage of the conflict?

The use of the Orechnik on November 21 was intended to be a demonstration of force on the part of Russia. It proved, on the one hand, that it could accurately hit a target 800 km away with a missile designed to strike at 5,500 km using multiple warheads with non-nuclear warheads; while knowing, on the other hand, that the Ukrainians did not a priori have the anti-missile systems capable of intercepting the Orechnik’s warheads.

Washington announced that Moscow could strike kyiv in the coming days with Oreshnik. Is the threat real?

As part of the arms control treaties between Russia and the United States, the two powers are required to warn each other before each strategic ballistic missile launch: the goal being that the deployment of such a weapon is not interpreted wrong as a nuclear attack. When Washington declares that Moscow could still fly the Orechnik, it could therefore be a new operational launch [visant à atteindre une cible].