Announced every year, 5G is definitely playing the Arlesian role. At Technology Days, even if operators continue to praise its advantages, its arrival seems uncertain.
Morocco, for several years, has decided to make digitalization one of the central pillars of its development and a major asset in improving its governance. Just a few years before the 2030 World Cup, where all eyes of the world will be on Morocco, the country aims to make a qualitative leap at all levels: stadiums, hotels, security, transport and… telecommunications.
Regarding this last point, the International Organization requires that the host country equip itself with the best infrastructure and cutting-edge technologies for the mobile telephone network and the Internet. It is worth noting that by 2022, Qatar had deployed a major 5G network covering all stadiums as well as other areas, such as airports, subways and fanzones.
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According to a study by equipment manufacturer Ericsson, published in 2022, Morocco is among the 15 emerging markets with economic, social and environmental advantages linked to 5G connectivity. The Kingdom is also one of the African countries which are expected to emerge in this area, with a leverage effect of 15 billion dirhams on industry and agriculture. Further, Ericsson says 5G subscriptions in the MENA region are expected to reach 270 million by the end of 2028.
In the meantime, the launch of 5G in Morocco, on the eve of the World Cup, is not yet a reality. What’s blocking? According to one of our sources close to the matter, one of the issues today is the question of pooling efforts in light of the true investment costs. “In certain countries, we have a pooling of equipment and a third party which plays the role of regulator,” specifies the expert. “Today, there is pressure on the ANRT to launch the 5G call for tenders. Several meetings took place with the main suppliers, Huawei, Nokia and Ericsson, as well as with the operators concerned. »
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For his part, telecoms expert Khalid Ziani returned to the telecoms issues involved in the organization of the next World Cup by Morocco (as part of the trio with Spain and Portugal). “There is a sector that must serve as fuel and vector of global connectivity for this big machine: it is indeed that of telecoms. Indeed, telecoms in particular, and IT in general, should benefit from unlimited direct and indirect spinoffs. Except that the technical prerequisites for organizing such an event, of international scope, require the acceleration from this year of a series of structuring projects,” confides Ziani.
And added: “Among these projects, the allocation of 5G licenses to operators. » Note also that the Qatar World Cup, which was a great success, spent no less than 20 billion dollars to set up telecoms infrastructure. “Telecoms are a strong link. To meet the challenge of the World Cup, Morocco has no other choice than to accelerate the construction of 5G and telecoms infrastructure,” warns Ziani.
Along the same lines, the president of AUSIM, Hicham Chiguer, tells us that 5G will make its first appearances in Morocco in 2025. And to specify: “Given the officialization of the World Cup, things will accelerate . »
What is at stake?
For the president of AUSIM, 5G will have a real leverage effect on the emergence of industry 4.0. For Chakib Achour, director of commercial marketing strategy at Huawei, “Morocco could be the first to launch this technology on the continent”. And added: “5G is the basis of industry 4.0. »
According to a study by the French group Orange, 5G will offer speeds up to 10 times faster than 4G, reducing the download time of a high definition film from 1 hour 40 minutes to 20 minutes. For Internet users, this means faster access to high-definition audiovisual content, as well as streaming games, a booming market. But more than speed, it is the possibility of mass circulation of billions of data, without congestion, which makes the major difference with previous mobile networks. 5G is frequently presented as the technology of the “Internet of Things”, a world in which equipment connected to the Internet will be able to communicate with each other, without human intervention.
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On the economic side, the issues do not seem too bling-bling. At least that’s what a player in the telecoms ecosystem, who wanted to remain anonymous, told us. “We have to make, in this project, colossal investments for hypothetical profitability, due to the low added value,” explains our source. And added: “There are, at the moment, no applications that justify the use of 5G for the large mass of users. »
Take inspiration from the Finnish model?
For some time, expert Khalid Ziani has been preaching for Morocco to be inspired by the 5G development model in Finland. In this Nordic country, the 5G connection rate has been increasing since 2020. Coverage of urban households has increased from 12.4% to nearly 95% in 2023, according to the global platform specializing in statistical data, Statista. According to the expert, the Kingdom should draw inspiration from the Finnish experience, especially if we know that the process of implementing 5G technology lasts approximately six to seven years, between the date of allocation of frequencies and the deployment throughout the country.
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For the expert, the adoption of this high-speed technology first requires the generalization of optical fiber throughout Moroccan territory. In Morocco, even if this technology is present, its spectrum remains quite weak. Only 336,000 customers benefited from it in 2021, i.e. a broadband penetration rate of 3.9%, according to the ANRT (comparatively: Tunisia 7%, Algeria 7.7% and Egypt 5.4%). The reasons for this delay are based on the problems of a very rigid regulatory framework. The telecoms law did not provide for the missing link of “telecoms infrastructure operators”, another source tells us. “This rigid framework does not allow the sharing and pooling of these infrastructures. Public actors who hold surplus fiber networks (ONCF, ONEE and ADM) cannot market them to other operators, who are very demanding in telecoms connectivity, apart from telecoms operators. For example, ONCF has a 2,700 km fiber network of which 70% is not used. »
Note that the two other co-organizers, Spain and Portugal, have already respectively deployed 85% and 90% of the FTTH network on their territory. To meet this challenge, it is imperative that the three telecom operators pool their infrastructures, which is still not the case, warns the expert Ziani.
