What will France look like by the end of the century in the face of climate change?
This is the question that Météo-France wanted to answer in a report published Tuesday.
The organization offers several maps showing the potential rise in temperatures region by region by 2030, 2050 and 2100.
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What will the face of France be in 5, 25 or 75 years? This is the question that Météo-France and the National Center for Meteorological Research (CNRM) asked in a report published Tuesday, December 10. An urgent question given that the year 2024 will be the first to exceed the symbolic bar of 1.5°C of warming compared to the pre-industrial era (1850-1900) and that the years 2022 and 2023 were the most hot never recorded…yet.
A rise in the thermometer which causes violent phenomena. Extreme precipitation, heat waves, drought, forest fires… So many devastating events that are forcing France to ask itself this central question: what future climate will we have to adapt to?
The climate from Montpellier to Paris
To respond to this, Météo-France and the CNRM established a reference warming trajectory for climate adaptation (TRACC) based on a continuation of existing policies without additional measures to combat climate change. It includes three deadlines: 2030 with an increase in temperatures of 2°C in France, 2050 with an increase of 2.7°C and 2100 at +4°C, i.e. the increase already mentioned by the government in its National Climate Plan. adaptation to climate change (PNACC) presented in October.
According to the document, from 2050 and +2.7°C, rising temperatures would result in “profound changes to the water cycle and an intensification of extreme events” while “the effects of climate change will be felt in all sectors of activity (water management, buildings, agriculture, energy production, industry, tourism, security, personal health, etc.)” and will have a very strong impact on natural environments and biodiversity.
According to Météo-France data, at the current rate, in 2100, average temperatures in Paris could even reach those of Montpellier today. In the south of France, temperatures corresponding to those of Andalusia must be anticipated, i.e. a thermometer between 17 and 37°C depending on the time of year.
By the end of the century, “the average annual temperature in France could reach 14.2°C with peaks of 15°C in the Paris metropolitan area […] even above 18°C for the southern half”, Météo-France tip. You will also have to expect the climate from Rome to Lyon or from Bilbao to Lille.
The expected warming in France is however not uniform “between the south-east of the country and the Alps which are warming more and the northwest of the country a little less”, Météo-France tip. Differences are also notable depending on the seasons, with more warming “marked in summer than in winter, of the order of 1°C”.
-10% rain in summer and +20% in winter
Concerning precipitation, uncertainty remains over a large part of the country. During a press point, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, deputy director of climatology at Météo-France, however explained that in the extreme South-West, “a majority of simulations announce a downward signal” rains while showing a “slight increase in the North-East”.
According to the organization, in 2050, we can already anticipate a drop in the availability of water resources with drier soils lasting approximately one month each year. Intense rains are expected to increase by 10%, reinforcing the risk of flooding by runoff to which 17 million French people are exposed, while the alternations of droughts and rains will further increase the damage by shrinkage-swelling of clays, with more than 4 million homes highly exposed. Finally, 5,000 homes will be threatened by marine flooding and coastal erosion.
Precipitation will drop by 10% in summer, but increase by 20% in winter. With another consequence: more rain in the mountains and snow cover which should be halved in the mid-altitude massifs in 2050. By 2100, in the Mont-Blanc massif, the snow cover rate will even be divided par three at 1500 meters altitude.
These lessons should enable the authorities to fight two inseparable battles head-on: that of mitigation (the reduction of our greenhouse gas emissions) and that of adaptation (i.e. the reduction of our vulnerability to climate change). With one goal: to better think about public policies and better anticipate the consequences for housing or transport, already strongly impacted by the current crisis in France.
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According to UN Environment forecasts, current policies to reduce greenhouse gases are leading the world towards warming “catastrophic” of 3.1°C over the century, or +4°C in France, with warming on the continents being accentuated, particularly at the latitudes of temperate regions and at the poles.
