London (awp/afp) – Oil prices stumble on Friday, with OPEC+'s decision to maintain its cuts exposing an already saturated black gold market in 2025 and investors' attention also focusing on compliance with quotas .
Around 10:00 GMT (11:00 CET), the price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea, for delivery in February, rose 0.36% to $71.83.
Its American equivalent, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), for delivery in January, gained 0.31%, to $68.09.
The OPEC+ agreement “clearly shows that the group is concerned about both a potential glut of supply and a lack of respect for production targets by member countries”, explains Mukesh Sahdev, analyst at Rystad Energy.
To avoid a price collapse, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) has renewed its reductions in black gold production while extending the timetable, from 12 to 18 months, for the gradual reintroduction of 2.2 million barrels per day from April 2025.
However, this decision only allows crude oil prices to be maintained and highlights some problems within the cartel.
“Not only does it have excess production capacity”, which continues to increase, “but it also has members who are only too willing to cheat, and the market will be even more attentive to bad practices”, warned John Evans, analyst at PVM.
For example, the organization decided to postpone by three months, from January to next April, the increase of 300,000 barrels previously granted to the United Arab Emirates.
However, the country has “already exceeded their quota of 2.9 million for several months”, by an amount equivalent to the expected increase according to Bloomberg data, specifies Ole Hansen, analyst at Saxo Bank.
This week, “American data also painted a mixed picture,” adds John Plassard.
Crude stocks fell by more than 5 million barrels while production hit a record high, underscoring the robustness of supply outside OPEC+.
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