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Oil price fluctuations continue to play a central role in the global economy, influencing not only energy markets but also the political and economic stability of producing countries. At the heart of this dynamic, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) remains a key player. According to Al Sharq Al Awsat et Al AkhbarOPEC's recent decisions, particularly regarding production quotas, illustrate the organization's efforts to maintain a balance between supply and demand in a context of geopolitical tensions and global economic slowdown.
Recent movements in the price of oil
According to Al Sharq Al Awsatthe barrel of Brent, a world benchmark, has oscillated between 75 and 85 dollars in recent months. This volatility reflects several factors, including uncertainties related to the post-pandemic economic recovery and international sanctions against producers like Russia. Al Akhbar stresses that the war in Ukraine has exacerbated tensions in energy markets, increasing demand for alternative supplies.
Moreover, the increase in interest rates by central banks in developed economies has reduced global demand for oil, weighing on prices. In this context, OPEC has intensified its efforts to stabilize markets by adjusting its production quotas.
OPEC policies: maintaining balance
At its last meeting, OPEC and its partners, grouped under the name OPEC+, decided to maintain a gradual reduction in production to avoid a drastic fall in prices. According to Nida' Al Watanthese decisions are also motivated by the need to preserve the income of member countries, whose budgets depend heavily on oil exports.
Saudi Arabia, the main player in OPEC, played a key role in implementing these adjustments. Al Sharqreports that Riyadh continues to favor a cautious approach, seeking to avoid a supply glut while meeting the needs of large consuming economies. This strategy, although criticized by certain consumer countries, aims to guarantee long-term stability.
Internal tensions within OPEC
Despite apparent cooperation, differences remain among OPEC members. Al Akhbar points out that some countries, such as Iran and Venezuela, are advocating for an increase in production to compensate for economic losses due to international sanctions. On the other hand, other members, notably the Gulf countries, prefer to maintain restrictive quotas to avoid a fall in prices.
Disagreements also focus on Russia's growing influence within OPEC+. Moscow, although weakened by sanctions, remains a strategic partner, which complicates unanimous decision-making. Nida' Al Watanreports that this situation could lead to increased tensions during future meetings.
The impact of OPEC decisions on Lebanon and the Middle East
For Lebanon, a net oil importer, OPEC's decisions have a direct impact on the cost of energy. According to An-Naharrising oil prices are increasing Lebanon's energy bill, exacerbating an already severe economic crisis. Fuel imports, necessary to power electricity generators, represent a significant share of public spending.
From a regional perspective, OPEC policies also influence relationships among major producers. Al Sharq Al Awsat highlights that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are seeking to strengthen their position in global markets, while adapting to the energy transition. These countries are investing heavily in renewable energy, anticipating a decline in global demand for fossil fuels.
Outlook for the oil market
The experts cited by Al Sharq believe that oil markets will remain volatile in the coming years, due to factors such as geopolitical tensions, climate policies and fluctuations in demand. International initiatives aimed at reducing dependence on oil, particularly as part of the commitments made at COP28, add additional pressure on producers.
OPEC will have to adapt to these developments while preserving the interests of its members. According to Al Akhbarthis will require a delicate balance between price support and meeting the expectations of global consumers.
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