Investing.com — JPMorgan (NYSE:) sees a near-term slowdown for base metals in early 2025 due to potential U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, but sees a rebound later in the year, sustained by stronger Chinese economic stimulus and improved valuations.
“Although base metals price forecasts have been revised downwards due to these pricing concerns, a favorable risk/reward scenario for base metals investment is expected over the coming quarters” , said the analyst.
JP Morgan's Greg Shearer lowered base metals price forecasts, due to tariff concerns and a weakening .
However, a V-shaped recovery is expected from the second quarter, with aluminum prices reaching $10,400 per metric ton by the end of the year and aluminum climbing to $2,850 per metric ton.
Prices are expected to remain stable, while nickel may remain under pressure at $16,000/mt due to oversupply.
As for precious metals, JPMorgan predicts the price of silver will reach $3,000 per ounce and silver $38 per ounce by the end of 2025 as markets stabilize. Platinum is expected to reach $1,200 per ounce, due to supply constraints.
In the iron ore market, JPMorgan highlighted improving fundamentals with a resumption of steel production in China and a decline in inventories. The analyst forecasts iron ore prices of $100/t in 2025, supported by seasonal factors and strong steel demand in China, although long-term prices are considered moderate at $80/t.
Risks to the outlook include potential US tariffs, Chinese stimulus and increased supply from key producers like Vale and Onslow.
