It is thanks to a worrying ghost fleet of aging tankers, at least 500, poorly or not insured, that Russia manages to sell as much oil and almost as expensive as before, despite Western sanctions. It is one of the main sources of Kremlin revenue that allows Vladimir Putin to continue his war against Ukraine.
The “Mr. Sanctions” of the European Union, David O'Sullivan, himself recognized that these sanctions on oil trafficking hardly operate anymore, in the interview he gave to West France in October.
So much so that, faced with what is turning into a fiasco, the European Parliament demanded, on November 14, that the European Union significantly toughen its policy.
Unlike Russian gas, still authorized in Europe, Russian crude oil has been banned there since December 2022, and refined products (fuels, fuel oil, naphtha) since February 2023. Only a few exceptions remain for Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia. , who say they are still dependent on pipelines inherited from the Soviet era.
The choice to leave the Russian tap on
Oil is not only transported through the imposing network of Russian pipelines to Europe and China. But also and above all in ships that are very easy to reroute anywhere in the world. European sanctions would have had no effect if they had not been extended to the G7 level. Which, in addition to Germany, France and Italy, already bound by European measures, includes Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom and especially the United States.
The latter are not only the leading producer of oil but have the strongest repressive capacity in the world, due to their economic weight and the role of the dollar as a currency for paying for raw materials.
This is what gives the United States “extraterritorial” power as the world’s economic policeman. But even they cannot stem the activity of the Kremlin's ghost fleet.
If tankers full of Ural, Sokol and Espo – the three main varieties of Russian oil – are still circulating towards India, China, Turkey and Brazil with complete impunity, it is because the objective was not to block its marketing. Wanting to dry up the flow of oil with which Russia irrigates the planet, even though it is the third largest producer with 11% of the world total, would have caused prices to soar and punished everyone, starting with the poorest countries. .
A two-part system, one of which no longer works
Western sanctions therefore only aim to restrict the Kremlin's resources. The latter derives 40% of its revenue from fossil fuels. We therefore implemented a two-part system. On the one hand, the outright ban on Russian oil in the European Union and in certain countries such as the United States and the United Kingdom.
On the other hand, others are prohibited – under penalty of economic reprisals – from purchasing Russian oil above a “ceiling” price set at $60 per barrel. What we call the “price cap” in English jargon. Furthermore, it is prohibited to welcome tankers and provide services (insurance, bank financing, technical inspection, etc.) to tankers transporting Russian oil which are under sanction or which do not respect the ceiling price. .
The system partly bore fruit in the early stages. According to a study by the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (Crea), a Finnish energy think tank, sanctions have reduced revenues from Russian fossil products (mainly oil, as well as coal) from 30 to 20 billion euros per month.
But this fall observed in 2022 did not continue thereafter. Including all the fossil fuels that it exports by land and sea, Russia continues, since the start of 2023, to rake in 600 million euros per day, or more than 200 billion per year. The Russian economy is suffering, but the Kremlin…
