(Montel) European gas prices are expected to fall thanks to higher LNG supply expected in 2026 and 2027 but could then rebound due to stronger demand in key Asian markets, an official at Montel told Montel. Norwegian energy company Equinor.
Prices would fall with the arrival of additional volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar and the United States, but “we believe this should only be temporary,” explained Irene Rummelhoff, executive vice president for marketing. , infrastructure and processes.
The executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, said at a conference organized by Equinor this week that we should move from a seller's gas market to a market of buyers around 2026, due to the increase in LNG supply.
But it will make gas more attractive in price-sensitive markets in Asia, added Ms Rummelhoff, echoing the view expressed last month by the boss of TotalEnergies.
“We recently signed an LNG contract with India. This was not possible two years ago with the price levels at the time, but now it is different,” said the Equinor manager.
Norwegian production
On the other hand, Norwegian gas should remain competitive in Europe, according to Ms. Rummelhoff.
“Margins will be lower, but we will still make money from Norwegian gas because it is the cheapest supply. No one can compete with our production costs. We can deliver gas to Europe for less than USD 2/MBtu [EUR 6,48/MWh] “, she said.
The gas market is currently in “backwardation”, that is to say that prices are decreasing over more distant maturities, with the Cal 2026 and 2027 calendar contracts confirming Ms. Rummelhoff's anticipation of a drop in prices.
On Wednesday, Cal 2025 settled at EUR 44.98/MWh on the reference gas exchange TTF in the Netherlands, compared to EUR 35.57/MWh for Cal 2026 and EUR 29.13/MWh for Cal 2027 .
