In kyiv, there is talk of a “alliance of the bold”bringing together five to seven European countries favorable to the deployment of troops on Ukrainian soil. Publicly supported by France since February and mentioned again by Emmanuel Macron in June, on the sidelines of the celebration of the 80th anniversary of the Landing, this project seems to be coming to fruition.
A perspective dictated by circumstances
Two factors explain this acceleration. The first concerns the evolution of the war in Ukraine. On the ground, kyiv is experiencing increasing difficulties in containing the Russian offensive. The commitment of 10,000 North Korean soldiers, the use of a ballistic weapon by Moscow and the repeated threats from Vladimir Putin against the countries which deliver missiles to Ukraine are pushing its most committed allies to strengthen their support in order to to avoid a Russian victory. The second circumstance is the imminent arrival of Donald Trump at the White House, and the threat it poses to the sustainability of American support for kyiv.
Franco-British rapprochement
To consider deploying troops in Ukraine, Paris needed a strong partner in Europe. After trying, unsuccessfully, to convince German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, France turned to London and its new Prime Minister, Keir Starmer. Faced with the deterioration of the situation for Ukraine, the two European nuclear powers have become considerably closer in recent days. Thus, on November 11, shortly after the election of Donald Trump, Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer together celebrated the 106th anniversary of the armistice of 1918, a symbolic gesture not seen since 1944. They also commemorated the 120th anniversary of the ‘Entente Cordiale of 1904. On this occasion, the Élysée reaffirmed the Franco-British determination to support kyiv “unwaveringly and for as long as necessary”. Michel Barnier added on X (formerly Twitter): “Franco-British friendship, forged through hardship, will be valuable in meeting the challenges to come. »
Then the Minister of Foreign Affairs Jean-Noël Barrot went to London on November 22 to meet his counterpart, David Lammy. The opportunity to declare during his visit not to exclude anything concerning a deployment of French troops. The day before, the two men even signed a column in Le Figarocalling to fight against « poutinisation » of the world. They state: “France and the United Kingdom will not let Putin get his way. Together with our allies, we will mobilize all necessary efforts to place Ukraine in the best possible position to achieve a just and lasting peace. »
Train the troops, secure a future peace deal
According to our information, if the two countries seriously consider sending ground troops, these forces would not be intended to participate in combat, but rather to carry out training, logistical support and intelligence missions. Paris has already been training a Ukrainian brigade since the beginning of September, in eastern France. It would be a question of doing the same thing, but in Ukraine. This would force Paris to send not only instructors, but also soldiers to ensure their protection, knowing that the Ukrainian brigade trained in France mobilizes no less than 1,500 soldiers. Sending troops is also being considered as part of security guarantees that Ukraine would demand in the future peace deal with Russia.
The risks of military engagement
Although these European soldiers are not expected to participate directly in the fighting, their presence in Ukraine would expose them to Russian attacks: drones, missiles or aircraft. Faced with this threat, specialized units and robust logistics (anti-aircraft defenses, armored vehicles, drones, hospitals) would be deployed for their protection, as was done in the European mission in Mali (EUTM). However, questions arise: how far could these troops go to defend themselves? Would they neutralize targets located on Russian territory, such as missile batteries or drone bases?
Second scenario
If Russia violated a peace agreement, European troops deployed in Ukraine would be in a position to intervene to defend it. A prospect actually envisaged by the French army, as confided by the Chief of Staff of the Army, General Schill, during a meeting with the press in Paris on September 21. How ? By giving ourselves the means to have“a division (25,000 men) ready to go into combat as quickly as possible”. Concretely, the French army is preparing to be capable of doing this in sixty days, from 2027. It is also cultivating “rusticity of the soldier” so that it is ready to withstand high-intensity warfare as it manifests itself in Ukraine (trench warfare). Still in this perspective, France is considering securing NATO logistical flows which would cross its territory towards Ukraine, in particular via its ports and its roads which connect the Atlantic coast and Ukraine.
For the moment, if the Franco-British couple is the driving force behind the alliance of the bold, the Baltic countries would also be involved, we learned from the Ukrainian side. But not Poland, due to tense diplomatic relations between Warsaw and kyiv in recent months.
