First, it is a demographic disaster. To date, between 400,000 and 500,000 Russians have been killed in combat. No other industrialized country has suffered such bloodletting since 1945.
The rate of Russian losses reached its highest level in November 2024: 78,000 dead, according to journalists from the New York Times. For what ? Well, because Putin is seeking to occupy a more favorable position when negotiations are looming.
Its decision to invade Ukraine in February 2022 has already caused the flight of hundreds of thousands of Russians, probably 1 million.
These consequences worsen the situation of a country hit for thirty years by a sharp demographic decline.
And in 2021, Russia had already lost more than a million inhabitants, including 660,000 due to disastrous management of Covid.
Furthermore, on the economic level, this war swallows up 40% of the nation's budget.
The entire production apparatus is forced to serve military operations; factories are running at full capacity, but the country lacks workers. And since it is a war economy, inflation soars; the ruble has never been so low since the fall of the USSR…
What future for Russia?
In the immediate future, according to the Russian Central Bank, its growth in 2025 will not reach 1%, while it will be 1.8% in developed countries, 4.5% in China and 6.5%. in India.
It will take many years to restore the economy.
Russia is increasingly dependent on China, not only for its economy, but also for Chinese immigration, as its population needs are increased by the war.
As we can see, Russia has even become dependent on North Korea to populate its army…
Finally, the invasion of Ukraine expanded and strengthened NATO. Putin finds himself more surrounded than ever; it led to the rearmament of the Europeans and they will wait a long time before lifting all sanctions.
The decision to invade Ukraine is catastrophic for Russia, but it preserves Putin, at least for a time, because the war was for him a response to the growing challenge to his power by Russian society.
To justify the war, Putin invokes “Great Russia”; in reality, it is the state of war which makes it possible to keep the Russians under firm domination.
Once this war is stopped and its failure noted, everyone could call it to account and not only for its tragic consequences.
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