the RN and its allies well ahead of the left, the macronie left behind

The polls were right. While the French were called to the polls this Sunday for the first round of early legislative elections, three weeks after the dissolution initiated by Emmanuel Macron, voters confirmed the trend already observed in the European elections on June 9. The “union of the rights” led by the National Rally – and reinforced by the “ciottists” – is well ahead with 34% of the votes at national level, according to new Ifop estimates. Thanks to this increase of almost sixteen points compared to the last legislative elections of 2022, the “national camp” could collect between 240 and 270 seats during the second round, scheduled for July 7.

Gathered under the banner of the New Popular Front despite strong divergences, the left finished in second position, with 29.1% of the votes. This would allow it to obtain between 180 and 200 deputies next week. That is around forty more elected representatives than the outgoing contingent of the Nupes.

Melting of the Macronist majority

The Macronist label “Together!” closes the podium and obtains 22% of the ballots. If the presidential camp saves the furniture somewhat this Sunday in national percentage, it expects a very difficult second round. Having started the campaign with 250 deputies, the central bloc could suffer big losses next week. Caught between its competitors on the left and right, the outgoing majority would only have between 60 and 90 seats.

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The right wing is the surprise of this first round. Estimated at around 6-7% in the latest polls, Les Républicains have collected 9.5% of the vote. If the party founded by Nicolas Sarkozy regains its colours, its parliamentary group could shrink by 30 to 50 deputies.