LA TRIBUNE SUNDAY – The question of replacing Joe Biden is agitating the Democratic camp, how can it affect Donald Trump’s campaign?
ROMUALD SCIORA – Before talking about that, I would like to share my surprise about the date of Thursday’s debate. Donald Trump won hands down, that’s obvious, but why did he take the risk of participating in this debate so early in the campaign? It’s as if, out of pride, like a kid frustrated and humiliated by his legal setbacks, he wanted to put his opponent to the ground without delay, and then quietly go on vacation.
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Of course, it is in his best interest. It would have been much wiser for him to wait until September, until there were no more lawsuits against him, nothing to worry him about. He would have demolished Biden then. It would have been too late for the Democrats to find a replacement at the last minute. Today, the great danger facing Trump is that he will find himself facing a candidate who could potentially beat him. But it all depends on the scenario.
What would be the worst scenario for the Republican candidate?
The one where, convinced by his entourage and before the Democratic convention in August in Chicago, Joe Biden decides to withdraw from the race but also from the presidency, citing health problems. The vice president, Kamala Harris, would therefore find herself the first female president of the United States. Never, since Lyndon Johnson, John Kennedy’s vice president, has a vice president been so marginalized. But whether we like Kamala Harris or not, Americans operate on emotion. There would be a kind of “Harrismania” for two or three months around this black president. The African-American community would wake up. No other serious candidate could run against the incumbent president. Being much more centrist than Biden, she could get the vote of moderate Republicans. She would have a very serious chance of beating Trump. I personally think she would beat him. This is the most serious threat Trump faces. On a scale of 0 to 10, I rate this danger at 9. Moreover, Trumpist circles and Republican circles are talking about this danger. Because there is a possibility that this will happen.
What are the other scenarios?
The second danger for Trump is the scenario where Joe Biden announces before the convention that he is withdrawing from the campaign while remaining president. I rate this danger for Trump at 6-7 out of 10 because the situation will still be complicated for the Democrats. There is a risk of such a war between them that it will leave its mark on the potential candidate who will face Trump in November. The last scenario is that, by mutual agreement within the Democratic Party, Biden is pushed not to show up at the convention, even if he tries to refuse. We would be heading towards an institutional crisis without common measure in American history.
For what ?
Because Democrats will have to explain why they decide to eject a popular candidate in the party. They will have to justify it for medical reasons. It will be quite easy to find doctors, and say: “ Look at his medical records, he can’t be president for another two, three, five years. » There would then be a measure of impeachment [mesure de destitution]. But then, and this is the whole problem, how can we justify that he can still be president today?
Is this the reason why Donald Trump postponed the nomination of his running mate, which was to take place these days?
Yes. Most of Trump’s aides are urging him to wait a bit. First, to assess how the televised debate was going to unfold. Then, to see what is happening within the Democratic Party after the earthquake we have been witnessing for three days. For example, if Biden steps down and Kamala Harris becomes president, Trump will have every interest in having a black woman as his running mate. If Biden is replaced by a more centrist candidate, Trump should have a more centrist running mate to try to win back this electorate. If Biden hangs on, things may be different. One can imagine Trump taking on someone even more radical than himself, like Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, in order to flatter and consolidate his evangelical base. Logic therefore dictates that Trump wait before announcing his running mate. He has time between now and the Republican convention in mid-July. But knowing Trump, and his impulsiveness, we may have a surprise and know the name of his running mate next week.
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