« L’Summer will be hot, summer will be hot,” sang Éric Charden in 1979. With global warming, world temperature records continue to fall. And it’s not Météo-France’s summer forecasts that will contradict the singer. The French meteorological service gave its trends for the next three months in a bulletin published on Friday June 28. Météo-France remains cautious, particularly due to the end of the El Niño phenomenon in the tropical Pacific.
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The scenario considered “the most likely” foresees “a shift of disturbances towards the north over Western Europe in conjunction with more frequent anticyclonic situations over south-west Europe”. France should therefore experience a hotter summer than normal.
France cut in two this summer?
The country is expected to be split in two: in the north of France, there is a 50% chance of higher temperatures than usual, and only a 30% chance of a near-normal scenario. In the South, this figure rises to 70% and 20% respectively. “It is slightly more likely that the south of the country will be drier than normal”, at 50%, explains Météo-France.
No particular trend is emerging in the northern half of the country. The organization warns, however, that “this bulletin does not allow us to predict the details of the weather conditions for the coming months day by day or even week by week.” These trends can, however, be used in particular for “strategic decision-making in different areas of water resources, agriculture or health.” For example, they provide information for the management of the large Seine dams, which makes it possible to anticipate changes in the flow of the river and reduce the risks of low water or flooding in the basin.
