The latest published opinion surveys show the National Rally and its allies at the top of voting intentions ahead of the New Popular Front and far ahead of the presidential majority.
The electoral campaign for the first round of the legislative elections will officially end this Friday at midnight. This is also the deadline for the publication of polls and opinion surveys relating to this election. Final overview of the balance of power between the three main blocs which hope to have the most elected officials at the Palais-Bourbon.
As has been the case since the first surveys conducted after the dissolution of the National Assembly by Emmanuel Macron, the National Rally and its allies, the Republicans – led by Éric Ciotti – are widely expected to be ahead in voting intentions, regardless of the institute concerned.
They are even credited with a similar score (36%) in the latest Elabe poll for BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche, published this Friday, June 28, and in the Ifop-Fiducial and Ipsos surveys published the day before. The Toluna Harris Interactive polling institute gives a cumulative score of 37% (34% for the RN and 3% for the candidates of “À droite avec Éric Ciotti”).
An absolute or relative majority for the RN?
Another point in common between all the polling institutes: they give this bloc in the lead for the seat projections on the evening of July 7, at the end of the second round. With significant uncertainty over the possible nature of this majority: will it simply be relative or absolute, that is to say equal to or greater than 289 seats? A decisive point since Jordan Bardella has already made it known that he only intends to become Prime Minister in the second scenario.
According to Ifop, the RN and its allies could obtain 220 to 260 seats. But the projections of Elabe (between 260 and 295 seats) and Toluna Harris Interactive (between 250 and 305 seats) make an absolute majority possible for the National Rally. However, as Ifop points out, the seat projections are “to be interpreted with caution given the uncertainties linked to the second round configurations”, for example the number of three-way races which could be very high, “and the withdrawal instructions that will be given after the first round”.
The New Popular Front (NFP), the left-wing bloc bringing together the rebels, socialists, ecologists and communists, is given second place with a score ranging from 27% (Toluna Harris Interactive) to 29% (Ifop and Elabe). The conversion of this score into seats varies enormously from one institute to another: 125 to 155 NFP deputies for Toluna Harris Interactive, 155 to 175 elected officials for Elabe and 180 to 210 seats for Ifop.
Strong anticipated participation
With between 20 and 21% of voting intentions, the presidential majority, grouped in the coalition Together for the Republic, could be the big loser of Emmanuel Macron’s decision to give the French “the choice of our parliamentary future by voting”.
While it had a relative majority of some 250 deputies on the evening of June 9, it could see this contingent divided by two, or even three (between 85 and 105 seats for Elabe when Toluna Harris Interactive puts forward a range of 75 to 125 elected representatives).
Finally, as a sign of the exceptional nature of Sunday’s vote, the various institutes are anticipating a very high turnout compared to recent elections of the same type.
While less than one in two French people went to the polls for the first round of the legislative elections (47.5%), more than 60% of those registered on the electoral lists could vote this Sunday, which has not happened since the 2007 election. Our partner Elabe is therefore projecting a turnout of between 63 and 65%, while Ifop indicates that 66% of voters plan to vote. Ipsos indicates that 63% of French people say they are certain to vote.
The Ifop-Fiducial survey for LCI, Le Figaro and Sud Radio was conducted from June 24 to 27 by self-administered online questionnaire on a sample of 2,823 registered voters from a panel of 3,000 people representative of the French population aged 18 and over according to the quota method. The margin of error is between 0.9 and 2 percentage points.
The Toluna Harris Interactive survey for M6, RTL and Challenges was carried out online from June 25 to 26 by quota method on a sample of 2,251 people representative of the French population aged 18 and over, including 2,014 people registered on the lists electoral. The margin of error is between 1 and 2.3 percentage points.
The Elabe poll for BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche was carried out online using the quota method from June 26 to 27 on a sample of 2,004 people representative of residents of mainland France aged 18 and over, including 1,871 people registered on the electoral lists. . The margin of error is between 1.0 and 2.6 percentage points.
The Ipsos poll for Le Monde, Radio France and France TV was conducted online using the quota method from June 21 to 24, 2024 on a sample of 11,820 people representative of the French population, registered on the electoral lists and aged 18 and over. The margin of error is between 0.3 and 0.9 percentage points.
