Notaries observe a stabilization of real estate prices in Paris and a tremor in the suburbs

Is the fall in real estate prices in Paris over? It is never easy to answer this kind of question but the latest observations from the Chamber of Notaries of Greater Paris, based on their sample of sales promises, still show a stabilization around €9,450 per m² on average after a long downward phase which generally began in 2021 following the health crisis and its corollary of preferences for larger areas or houses in the suburbs.

13% drop from highs

Over the last three years, the drop in prices in Paris can be estimated at around 13% compared to a peak close to €11,000 per m², but with certain jolts and a downward acceleration since 2023 and the sharp rise in rates. loan. Notaries thus estimate that current prices in the capital would remain down around 7% over one year.

Summer thrill

According to our leading indicators on pre-contracts, prices should change little or increase slightly, depending on the market, between now and August. These developments, very visible on the curves for the coming months, would lead to a slowdown in the annual decline by August, particularly in the Greater Crown., specify the notaries. On the basis of preliminary contracts (promises of sale), the drop in prices in the Greater Crown would in fact currently be reduced to around -5% over one year, both for apartments and houses due to a slight increase over the last three months. Likewise, in the inner suburbs the decline would ease between -6% and -7% over one year.

The Chamber of Notaries of Greater Paris had already started to observe a slightly less marked drop in transactions since February 2024 and the gradual improvement in financing conditions with borrowing rates which have lost half a point since February 2024. beginning of the year.

The fall in prices continues at the high end

In the particular segment of prestigious real estate, the Barnes agency network is observing a stabilization of activity in the first half of 2024 after a year 2023 marked by a clear slowdown in Parisian real estate, both in volume and in terms of price. sales.

The provisional trends for this first half of 2024 established by Barnes, however, show a continuation of the landing of prices with a drop of 4% compared to 2023 for all districts, around €14,300 per m² on average. The decline is a little less marked (-3% to €13,600 per m²) for housing priced less than 3 million euros but significantly more pronounced (-9%) for properties costing more than 3 million euros which are ‘exchange at around €20,700 per m² on average.

Goods without defects remain the rare pearl

Richard Tzipine, managing director of Barnes, discusses large gaps between neighborhoods that are resisting the crisis, or even making progress from one year to the next, and those that are experiencing a correction in their sales prices following the euphoria experienced after the Covid-19 pandemic. Richard Tzipine also notes, in all districts, a strong trend towards the search by purchasing clients for goods without defects and in perfect condition. Conversely, goods deemed imperfect suffer a significant discount or do not sell if this is not accepted by the sellers.indicates Richard Tzipine.