The war in Ukraine is still at an impasse, even after 1,000 days of fighting: the two belligerents must absolutely win, but also have a lot to lose by continuing the conflict, notes a former Canadian ambassador.
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“Putin needs a victory. Zelensky needs to save face,” Ferry de Kerckhove recalls in an interview on LCN.
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The arrival of Donald Trump at the White House on January 20, who has repeatedly proclaimed that he would end the conflict within 24 hours, also imposes a deadline on President Joe Biden to offer assistance. American aid to Volodymyr Zelensky.
This would explain why Mr. Biden would have authorized the Ukrainians to use American missiles deep in Russian territory, a decision to which the 81-year-old president had been resistant since the start of the conflict.
“We are making an effort very late to strengthen Zelensky’s capacity, something we should have done from the start, which I have been saying for a thousand days,” mentions Mr. de Kerckhove. I say that we should have given our all from the start. We didn’t do it. And now, with Trump, it is certain that the Europeans will have to stand up and unite to provide weapons to Zelensky to replace Trump.”
And this is indeed what the former ambassador believes: a continuation of the conflict when the Trump administration is in power in Washington, but under the tutelage of the Europeans.
“It is certain that Trump will not be able to achieve an end to the crisis in 24 hours, but the negotiation will certainly take place because more and more people are talking about it,” nevertheless raises the international relations expert.
Armed Forces of the Philippines Chief of Staff Gen. Romeo Brawner (left) chats with U.S. soldiers in front of a High Mobility Artillery System (HIMARS) on display during the Asian Defense Exhibition and (ADAS) in Manila, September 25, 2024.
AFP
But Joe Biden’s latest attempts to help Ukraine have also aroused Russian threats which have not hesitated to mention the use of nuclear weapons, which could, in a catastrophic scenario, lead to a Third World War. A strategy that is difficult to explain by Mr. de Kerckhove.
Since the start of the war in Ukraine, “there have been statements about nuclear war several times, including by [le vice-président du Conseil de sécurité de Russie, Dmitri] Medvedev, he recalls. That said, is it because he is so afraid of the reaction of the West?
“Is he literally trying to scare Biden’s successor, who in any case has absolutely no […] want to continue this war? he asks himself.
In this official photo released by Russian state agency Sputnik, Dmitry Medvedev, former President of Russia and currently Deputy Chairman of the country’s Security Council, attends a concert and rally of members and supporters of the political party United Russia in Volgograd, March 12, 2024.
AFP
The avenue of negotiation
According to the geopolitics specialist, the situation of both parties is critical and ending the conflict could be profitable for them, but are we on the verge of an agreement between Russia and Ukraine?
“I am skeptical,” replies Mr. de Kerckhove. On the one hand, Volodymyr Zelensky is “losing momentum”, on the other hand, Vladimir Putin’s army has suffered numerous losses.
“We are indeed already talking about sharing what is more Russian in the east of Ukraine. We feel that in the more or less medium term, there will be a kind of clash of this type where we will say “Listen, we have to recognize that eastern Ukraine is very Russified”, but say it , this is already betraying Zelensky,” he notes.
Then, on Vladimir Putin’s side, the stakes are also very high.
“Any step back would still risk putting him in a bad position, even if he has total control over his population,” he says.
“Basically, on a military level at the moment, it is certain that Russia is a nuclear power. But generally speaking, in terms of combatants, availability, he has lost so many men and women that I do not believe he is in a very, very good position on the military level,” adds he.
Regarding NATO, the Russian president has repeatedly mentioned that keeping the alliance away from its borders is a matter of national security. However, if Ukraine commits not to join NATO, will that be enough to calm Vladimir Putin’s fears? The guest doubts it.
“I know that quite recently I read a statement from Putin reported by one of the Russian specialists and researchers who said that Putin wants more and more, with the greatest violence and the greatest brutality, which is entirely in keeping with his character,” he emphasizes.
