For most Americans, tonight’s debate is as welcome as a visit to the dentist.
Even though the campaign has been underway for a long time, for many inattentive voters this will be the first opportunity to take the pulse of a race that very few wanted to relive.
Firsts
This debate will be unprecedented in several ways. First, the candidates have dumped the committee that had the mandate to organize it. This allowed the exclusion of party pooper Robert F. Kennedy.r. So much the better, because the distraction it would have introduced could only have harmed the objective of clarifying the choice between those who have a real chance of winning.
It is also the first debate held so early in the campaign. This suits Biden, who needs to dispel the image of weakness that his opponent has stuck to him. Trump and the right-wing media have cultivated this image so well that Biden will easily overcome expectations.
Such a hasty debate risks being forgotten on voting day, but it will set the tone for the period of underground mobilization of activists during the summer.
Two protagonists on the defensive
This debate will be the first of the modern era in which both participants have a record to defend. The challenge is unique for Biden because the issues related to his administration are fresh in voters’ minds, while many of those from Trump’s tenure have faded into obscurity.
It will also be the first debate to feature a convicted criminal. This is tricky for Biden. He may score points with those who are unfamiliar with Trump’s troubles with the law. On the other hand, putting too much into it would risk giving credence to Trump’s speech, which says he is the victim of instrumentalized justice.
The format of the debate, where the candidates will face an empty studio and where the microphones will be cut outside of speaking time, favors Biden. On the other hand, the CNN hosts have agreed not to play the role of fact-correctors, which will allow Trump to immerse his audience in the parallel universe of alternative facts.
A first TikTok debate
It will also be one of the first presidential debates that will reach its audience primarily in the form of brief video clips designed to influence those who get their news via TikTok or Instagram.
This will lead to predictable scenes. Trump’s strategy consists of “flooding the area with sh…”, in the crude words of his advisor Steve Bannon. We will get clips where his word salads will appear to his supporters as strokes of genius, especially if he manages to generate enough confusion to unbalance Biden.
Biden, for his part, will try to shake Trump off his hinges to bring back to the electorate’s memory his chaotic and uncontrolled character.
Most often, this search for the murderous clip will be to the detriment of a substantial and truly informative debate.
Finally, we must remember that presidential debates are rarely decisive. Even if we see a knockout, there will be 18 weeks of campaign left. In politics, a week is an eternity. It’s a long time, 18 eternities.
