THE prix of rapeseed have progressed on Euronext and, in turn, on the walk physique French between June 12 and 19. The level and quality of the European harvest continue to raise concerns, as rains continue to drench theWestern Europe. In Germanythe harvest of rapeseed is estimated to be down 8% from one year to the next. In Ukrainethe European Commission expects a decline in production of 12 %.
Elsewhere in the world, the outlook is much more positive for harvests ofoilseed. The growing conditions are satisfactory for the seedlings of canola Canadian, and this while sowing is now almost complete in the three main producing provinces. Rain favored the development of seedlings on the Prairies and in Australia.
Oil World analysts expect global production to rise by military 7.1% year-on-year. Cultivation conditions are rated good to very good on 72% of the surface areas. UNITED STATES, a figure much higher than last year, despite concerns about high temperatures and lack of precipitation following the publication of the Crop Progress report. Private consultant Soybean & Corn Advisor has left its forecasts for the 2024 soybean harvest in Argentina and Argentina unchanged. Brazil, while Conab (Brazilian state agency) revised the Brazilian harvest downward to 147 Mt, below the USDA to 153 Mt. The prices of soybeans and meal thus fell more sharply on long-term deadlines than on the spot on CBOT between June 12 and 19. The plan to tax manufacturers in Brazil appears to be postponed, according to analyst StoneX. This therefore reassured the market.
Au Canada, canola prices were falling sharply, to their lowest level since the end of April. Cumulative exports decline in 2023-2024 compared to the previous campaign. The drop in prices should allow Canadian canola to regain competitiveness on the Japan and the Mexico.
The prices ofoil of palms followed the downward movement of oilseedsNorth America and closed sharply lower on long-term maturities. According to Regina Koh, an analyst specializing in Asian palm oil markets for Fastmarkets-Agricensus, palm oil production is expected to experience a ” modest progression in 2024 in Malaysia and in Indonesiathanks to better training of agricultural workers and optimization of fertilization ».
Palm oil is now more competitive on the Chine and theInde than other vegetable oils. The increase in Indian imports of vegetable oils was not enough to support prices.
On the French physical market, premiums changed little between June 12 and 19. The market remains sluggish. In tournesolprices have lost €5/t in the near future and have not moved in the distant future. Uncertainty about the harvest is slowing down business.
Note that the Snia (national union of animal feed manufacturers) is alarmed in a press release by the lack of details on the certification of non-deforesting soy, which must be used exclusively in the European Union from January 1, 2025. Bruno Colin, president of the animal division of Agricultural Cooperation, considers the measure in itself to be “rather positive”. He pleads for “a clarification of the methods of application or a postponement” of the measure which, in the current state of things, “endangers France’s capacity to feed its animals”.
Furthermore, China announced the opening of a anti-dumping investigation on the exports European pig towards its territory in retaliation for a European measure on the taxation of imports of Chinese electric vehicles, report our colleagues from Agra. For Philippe Bizien, president of the pork section of Agricultural Cooperation, “French breeders are pragmatic on the subject and Agricultural Cooperation is currently evaluating the file with the countries ofEuropean Union and the companies involved. If the accusation proves true, this could lead to a loss of market for French pork and, in turn, for agricultural raw materials for pig feed.
Adèle d’Humières
Yeah/Féveroles
Contrasted evolution of pea prices
Pea prices fell in the East between June 12 and 19 but remained stable in Brittany. In Rouen, prices are increasing, driven by export demand; in this context, local FABs reduce their consumption. Faba bean prices fell slightly in Brittany from one week to the next. If fava beans are difficult to find at the end of the commercial season, there are still peas.
Oilcakes
Waiting on crabs
Oilmeal prices fell between June 12 and 19, more markedly for soybeans. The premium for non-GMO soya changed little between June 12 and 19 (stable on the near side at 170 €/t and +2 €/t at 177 €/t on the long side). The market appears calm and expects a continued fall in prices.
Milling products
Continued drop in sound prices
The prices of milling products generally maintained their downward trend between June 11 and 18 in the Île-de-France region, losing €5/t of fine flour, €4/t of fine pellet and €5/t in half-white remolding. The market is selling, with the exception of low-grade flour, whose prices are up €10/t over the week. The good activity of the French flour mill – effect of the Paris 2024 Olympic Games? – comes up against the drop in demand: withdrawal of foreign animal feed manufacturers (covered over June-August) and drop in consumption by French manufacturers, in the midst of reformulation. Only the price of low flour increased this week by €10/t, this niche product still being highly sought after for specific applications. The prices of fine bran flour in Brittany continue to lose ground (-5 €/t) between June 12 and 19, in the same proportions as those on the Ile-de-France market. Animal feed manufacturers, who have modified their compound feed recipes to the detriment of bran, are not very demanding; the milling offer is less extensive than last week. Departing from Isère, a contract for its fine soft wheat was processed at €130/t spot. In the Marseille region, we notice that the gap is widening between the prices of fine bran and pellets. This is due to an overabundance of the first while the second is becoming rarer.
Starch co-products
Little active market
Prices of corn grains experienced a small drop in the short term between June 12 and 19. Quotations reappear in wheat spent grain. The market is generally calm. Corn gluten feed prices fell between June 12 and 19, in a sluggish market.
Dehydrated products
Decline in beet pulp prices
The price of dehydrated alfalfa leaving Marne did not change between June 12 and 19. The second cuts progress painfully between two showers. It is still too early to get an idea of the harvest in terms of quantity and quality.
For dehydrated beet pulp, the price fell slightly between June 12 and 19, around €245/t. The market is suffering from the slowdown in wheat business. Buyers are more cautious and the market is calm for old and new harvests.
Dairy products
Firming milk powder
On the French physical market, a deal in milk powder intended for animal feed was transacted at €2,400/t on availability, between June 13 and 20. The quotation of whey powder on French markets is once again nominally renewed from one week to the next, in the absence of a new contract.
The market is hardly active in France as in the northern Community. The trend in milk powder would be upward over the summer months but rather downward over the fourth quarter of 2024.
Fish meal
Waiting for the harvest
Fishmeal prices on the French physical market stabilized between June 12 and 19. Buyers are rather behind.
Straw and fodder
Waiting for the harvest
The prices of straw and fodder on the French physical market did not change between June 12 and 19. The price ranges for straw can be explained by geographical and qualitative differences. Departing from the Center/Paris Basin, we recorded some deals in old harvests, which made it possible to sell the last available batches.
The next campaign is completely calm: “we are waiting for good weather”, commented a correspondent. In fact, grass silage is complicated to carry out, due to intermittent showers. Operators are waiting to know the quality of the straw that will be harvested before committing to the market, given the current rainy weather.
Dried vegetables
Bad harvest in Argentina
The expected poor harvest in Argentina is leading to a rise in white bean prices. Furthermore, the new taxes will make it impossible to import Russian lentils and chickpeas. The market is not very active.
Karine Floquet and Adèle d’Humières
To monitor
Military
- Growing conditions in the United States, good at the moment.
- End of harvests in Brazil and Argentina.
- Dynamics of Brazilian and American exports.
- Intensity of US crushing.
- Level of oil prices.
Rapeseed
- Good growing conditions for Canadian canola.
- Dynamics of Canadian crushing.
- Pay attention to the growing conditions for rapeseed in Ukraine.
- Beware of rain in France, which will affect rapeseed plots.
Sunflower
- Growing conditions in France.
- Growing conditions in Ukraine, Russia and Kazakhstan.
- Dynamics of Ukrainian and Russian oil exports.
Kevin Cler
