Ukraine and long-range missiles: three questions for better understanding | War in Ukraine

The United States finally agreed on Sunday to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s long-standing request to be able to strike Russia with long-range missiles. What does this announcement mean for the war in Ukraine, as both sides try to make maximum gains before Donald Trump arrives in the White House and a possible ceasefire?

What are we talking about and what could be the consequences?

The American authorization was announced on Sunday by several media using anonymous sources. Neither the Biden administration nor the Ukrainian presidency wanted to confirm the news or provide more details in order to create a surprise effect.

We are talking about American ATACMS missiles which were until now only used to strike the Russian army in areas controlled by Moscow, but not deep into the Russian rear lines. American authorization will now make it possible to strike Russian military forces in depth, up to 300 km, the range of American missiles.

By striking deep, you have two effects: on airports, you prevent Russian planes, which are launching missiles to destroy Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, from taking off […]; on the other hand, you can strike Russian fuel or ammunition storage sites to indirectly reduce the Russian ability to fight on the frontexplained retired French general Dominique Trinquand, in an interview on the show First the info on HERE RDI.

The ATACMS missiles supplied by the United States should initially be used in the Russian border region of Kursk, where North Korean soldiers have been deployed in support of Russian troops, according to the New York Times.

The American authorization will have the corollary of allowing the use of French Scalp and British missiles Storm Shadow. France and the United Kingdom were waiting for American authorization, because their weapons contained components produced in the United States and they therefore did not have authorization to use them as they wanted.said former General Trinquand.

On Monday, former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson called on Paris and London to authorize Ukraine to use these missiles to target Russian territory. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot, for his part, reaffirmed that the use of French missiles by Ukrainian forces on Russian soil remained an option. Italy continues to refuse to allow kyiv to use its weapons outside its territory.

The French and British missiles are air-to-ground missiles, which are less easy to use, as they are fired from aircraft and therefore depend on the availability of Ukrainian combat aircraft.

How will Russia react?

The outgoing administration in Washington intends to take measures to add fuel to the fire and provoke a further rise in tensionsKremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov reacted on Monday.

This authorization would lead to a fundamentally new situation regarding the involvement of the United States in this conflicthe warned.

In September, Vladimir Putin warned that such a measure by the West would mean nothing less than direct involvement of the countries ofI’LL TAKE in the war in Ukraine.

In an interview with ICI RDI, former General Trinquand refuted the validity of this assertion. This is not theI’LL TAKE who is involved are the Americans, the French and the British who, individually applying Article 51 of the United Nations Charter, help an attacked country to defend itselfhe said.

What to expect next?

Even if some fear an extension of the conflict, or even the start of a third world war if Ukraine strikes deep into Russian territory with the blessing of the West, General Trinquand is less alarmist and above all more pragmatic.

He believes that both camps will want to make as many gains as possible before President-elect Donald Trump enters the White House on January 20. Putin is losing between 1000 and 1500 soldiers per day on the front and has to recruit North Korean and even Sri Lankan personnel as I saw in images not long agorecalled former General Trinquand, who believes that the Russian army is running out of steam.

Putin has an interest in making as many gains as possible before January 20, hoping for a ceasefire favorable to Russia.

On the campaign trail, Mr. Trump claimed that, if re-elected, he would resolve the conflict between Russia and Ukrainein 24 hourswithout ever explaining how. Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose troops are advancing on multiple segments of the front, has warned, for his part, that any discussion on an end to the fighting could only be based on the new territorial realities.

For former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, it would be a humiliation for the West if the US president-elect began his term by agreeing to peace for Ukraine on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s terms.

According to him, obtaining a peace agreement must necessarily be accompanied by security guarantees for kyiv.

In interview at HERE RDIex-soldier Dominique Trinquand confided that he did not believe that we would see peace negotiations from the start, but probably more like a ceasefire.

While waiting for this hypothetical scenario, the fighting continues. After carrying out the biggest attack in three months on Saturday evening – 120 missiles and 90 drones launched against Ukrainian infrastructure – Russia is maintaining the pressure.

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A Russian missile attack in broad daylight on Monday left at least 10 dead and 43 injured, including 4 children, in Odessa, a port city located on the Black Sea, far from the front line, according to the authorities. The projectile was shot down by the anti-aircraft defense, but its fragments fell on a residential area.

Seven police officers, a caregiver and two residents of this city were among those killed, said the regional governor, Oleg Kiper.

With information from Agence France-Presse and Reuters