more than Russia, it is Viktor Orban’s Hungary which threatens the discussions

INTERNATIONAL – Russia is Ukraine’s great enemy, but it is not the only one. Negotiations intended to enable Ukraine’s accession to the European Union officially began on Tuesday June 25 in Luxembourg.

The Ukrainian president rejoiced on X about an event “ historical » waited since « decades » by kyiv, welcoming the achievement of a “ European dream ». But Volodymyr Zelensky is not fooled: it is a path strewn with pitfalls set by Russia, but especially by Hungary, which is waiting for its country before joining the 27.

Orban soon to head the EU Council

The latter have already had to fight to convince Viktor Orban not to block the opening of these talks. In fact, in December, the Hungarian Prime Minister threatened a veto to prevent these discussions from taking place. Ukraine is not “ready” to join the EU, argued the leader close to Vladimir Putin. But ultimately, against all expectations, Viktor Orban ended up keeping his opposition power in his pocket and left the summit table of the leaders of the 27 without saying a word. A first undeniable victory for Ukraine.

Obviously, the leader of “illiberalism” in the EU has not said its last word and will “everything to slow down kyiv’s accession process”anticipates the historian Paul Gradvohl, specialist in contemporary Central Europe joined by The HuffPost. Especially since Hungary takes over the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU from July 1 for six months. A position that will allow him to establish “Agendas that harm Ukraine’s interests. » On the issue of military aid, amounting to 6.6 billion euros, the future Hungarian presidency has, for example, no intention of lifting its veto.

The priority “to the countries of the Western Balkans”

The arguments to oppose Ukraine’s entry and any aid to the country are multiple. First bone of contention between Volodymyr Zelensky and Viktor Orban: the rights of the Hungarian minority in Ukraine. Budapest has in fact accused kyiv for several years of “persecute” This minority from the Transcarpathian Oblast in southwestern Ukraine. The war gave Hungary something to chew on: “Viktor Orban decided that Hungarians living in Ukraine should not take part in the fighting. And seems to think that the only solution for them to be protected is for Vladimir Putin to win the war.explicite Paul Gradvohl.

Budapest also puts forward economic reasons for refusing Zelensky’s application for membership. “Hungarian agriculture relies essentially on European aid. This is why Fidesz [parti droite populiste de Viktor Orban] says: “No, we will not share the financial pie”continues historian Paul Gradvohl.

Andreas Bock, Hungary expert at the European Council for International Relations think tank, notes for his part a certain indifference from Hungary towards Ukraine. “In its enlargement policy, Budapest clearly gives priority to the Western Balkan countries rather than Ukraine”argues the specialist, citing in particular Serbia and Montenegro, with which Orban maintains close ties.

Pretext to get closer to Vladimir Putin

Behind the well-honed Hungarian rhetoric lies a greater desire of the Hungarian Prime Minister, that of getting closer to Vladimir Putin, the future strong man of the world, according to him. “Viktor Orban believes that Russia will win the war and that the West will be the losers”affirms in this regard the professor of History at Panthéon-Sorbonne.

The war in Ukraine even helped fuel Orban’s anti-Ukrainian discourse and earn him sympathy points with Putin. “This anti-Ukraine stance certainly benefits Putin, who seeks to prevent Ukraine’s integration into Western alliances,” adds Andreas Bock on this point.

However, it is difficult for the Hungarian populist leader to fiercely and openly defend Russia against member states. And for good reason: Budapest is dependent on the European internal market. “If Hungary leaves it tomorrow, the unemployment rate will rise to 25% within six months, and all the German automobile factories that support it will leave the country,” underlines Paul Gradvohl. In other words, Hungary has far too much to lose by alienating the European Union by indefinitely blocking the desire of the twenty-six other members to bring kyiv into the EU. A glimmer of hope, therefore, for Ukraine.

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