► What are we talking about?
On Sunday, November 17, the United States gave its authorization to Ukraine to strike Russian territory with long-range missiles that it is providing, according to several press outlets including AFP, the Associated Press, the New York Times and the Washington Post. American officials interviewed by these media assure that the agreement concerns the ATACMS missiles (Army Tactical Missile System), which kyiv could now use against the positions held by the Russians and the North Koreans in the Kursk region conquered by the forces Ukrainians this summer in western Russia.
This authorization had been requested for months by Ukraine, which finds itself in a situation of great tactical and strategic fragility vis-à-vis Russia, after the failure of its 2023 counter-offensive. Again this Sunday, Moscow launched a massive attack across its entire territory, engaging more than 120 missiles and 90 drones against energy infrastructure.
Taken by Joe Biden two months before leaving the White House, this decision anticipates the arrival of his successor Donald Trump, known for being very critical of American aid to Ukraine and for his promises to end the war in ” A day “, in other words, push Ukraine to negotiate with Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky cautiously welcomed this announcement reported by Western media. «Keystrokes are not conducted using words. Things like this are not announcedhe reacted. The missiles will speak for themselves. »
► What effects can these missiles have on the battlefield?
ATACMS are ground-to-surface semi-ballistic missiles guided by GPS. They have a range of 300 km with an accuracy of a few tens of meters. And they are very mobile since they can be launched from Himars-type multiple rocket launchers. The first long-range ATACMS were delivered to Ukraine last spring and were already used against Sevastopol, Crimea, in June.
This time, they would therefore be engaged against the Russian forces and the 10,000 North Korean soldiers who support them, in the Russian region of Kursk, partially conquered in August by kyiv. The ATACMS would allow kyiv not to reverse the balance of power in its favor on the entire front line, but to give it the means to keep this Russian territory in its possession. A conquest which will be useful as a bargaining chip in the future negotiation with Russia desired by Donald Trump.
The use of these missiles on Russian territory is also a signal of firmness sent to Moscow and Pyongyang by Washington. As long as Joe Biden is in power, the United States will not leave unanswered any form of internationalization of the conflict by Vladimir Putin and his allies. If for the moment the use by the Ukrainians of ATACMS is authorized only on Kursk, Washington could also accept that they be on other targets on Russian territory such as the logistical installations – airfields and bridges – on which it relies Moscow for its offensive on Ukrainian territory.
► What is the position of the Europeans on these strikes?
The decision to authorize long-range missile strikes on Russian territory is of very direct interest to France and the United Kingdom, who delivered medium-range Scalp air-to-ground missiles (named Storm Shadow in their British name) to kyiv. The use of these weapons has, until now, been limited to Ukrainian territory and Crimea, whose annexation by Russia in 2014 is not recognized by the West.
Could this situation change after the American green light? “Nothing new under the sun”, evades Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot, who referred to the position expressed by the President of the Republic last May. Emmanuel Macron estimated that“we must allow (to Ukrainians) to neutralize the military sites from which missiles are fired, the military sites from which Ukraine is attacked». The declaration has not been acted upon since. But it is not excluded that strikes will take place without a French word authorizing them more explicitly, the principle having already been laid down.
The American green light also comes as a surprise to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who recently renewed his refusal to deliver its Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine.
► Does this decision pose a risk of escalation on the part of Russia?
In the same way that Ukraine has been asking the West for several months for authorization to strike Russia with this type of weapon, Moscow is trying to dissuade them. By playing on two repertoires: the fear of a geographical extension of the conflict to NATO countries, and that of a nuclear response. The Kremlin thus recalled the warnings expressed in September by Vladimir Putin: “This would mean that NATO countries, the United States and European countries are at war with Russia.»
The pressure increased a notch two weeks later, when the Russian president proposed « clarifications » to his country’s nuclear doctrine, indicating that a nuclear response would be possible in the event of “massive launch” missiles and drones on Russia. Another modification mentioned: the fact of considering as a “joint attack” against Russia any offensive carried out by a power not equipped with atomic weapons, but with “participation or support” of a nuclear power.
The Kremlin can also opt for diplomatic retaliation. On September 13, Moscow expelled six British diplomats stationed in Russia. The announcement was seen as a warning shot as the UK and the Biden administration debated whether to authorize the strikes.
