Nearly 1,000 days after Russia’s massive invasion of Ukraine began, Washington reportedly authorized the use of U.S. ATACMS missiles for strikes inside Russia. How far is Ukraine allowed to strike and what are Kyiv’s targets?
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It took about a month for the United States to respond to the deployment of North Korean forces to the Kursk region battlefieldafter Ukrainian intelligence services warned of Pyongyang’s dispatch of personnel to Russia in mid-October.
On October 24, Kyiv said the first North Korean units trained in Russia had been deployed to the Kursk region. A few days later, the United States and NATO confirmed that they too had evidence of the involvement of North Korean troops in the war in Russia.
The Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky condemned the West’s lack of reaction facing the arrival of Pyongyang’s troops in the Russian invasion, declaring that these “first battles with North Korea open a new chapter of instability in the world”.
Ukraine’s target list
Even before the first reports of Pyongyang’s involvement, Kyiv asked Washington to lift restrictions on the use of American weapons inside Russian territory.
Ukraine has long claimed that restrictions on the use of long-range weapons, particularly ATACMS, are stifling its war effort, while Washington claims that allowing Ukraine to strike deep into Russian territory with its weapons could lead to an escalation of the war.
Since his surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk region in early August, Kyiv intensified its pressure to lift the ban. According to Ukrainian authorities, the list included airfields used by the Russian military to launch strikes against population centers throughout Ukraine.
Since then, Russia has moved almost all of its aircraft away from airfields within the ATACMS range.
The Washington-based think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has revealed a map listing all the possible targets Ukraine could strike. According to the ISW, at least 245 known Russian military and paramilitary objects are within the range of Ukrainian ATACMS, in particular their 300 kilometer variant. Of these 245 objects, there are only 16 airfieldsfrom where Russia has moved almost all of its aircraft.
If restrictions are only lifted for the Kursk region, kyiv will have 15 known objects in this regionaccording to ISW geolocated research.
By the end of August, there were also at least 11 sites known as “military land use” by Russia, meaning areas designated for training and military tests.
More this list could grow with the deployment of North Korean personnel and Moscow’s efforts to push Ukrainian troops out of the Kursk region.
When Kyiv began its incursion, Russia had 11,000 troops in the Kursk region, according to the ISW. Based on these calculations, the US-based think tank reported a total of 11 military land use sites and 15 known and significant military and paramilitary structures in the region bordering Russia.
According to the latest estimates, Moscow has now assembled five times more personnel there, including North Korean forces, to carry out an assault on Ukrainian positions.
Around 50,000 Russian and North Korean troops are expected to take part in the assault.
Meanwhile, Zelensky said: “Our men are holding back […] 50,000 members of the occupier’s army who, due to the Kursk operation, cannot be deployed in other Russian offensive directions on our territory.”
ADVERTISEMENTThis could indicate that Ukraine now has a greater number of possible targets in the Kursk region, even though restrictions have only been lifted for this area.
