“We always overestimate the impact of televised debates a little. This is normal because giving them importance is also a way of making them interesting and attractive.explains Jean-Yves Dormagen, professor of political science at the University of Montpellier (1) and president of Cluster17, an opinion studies laboratory. However, we know that debates rarely modify the balance of power, except in exceptional cases such as during the first debate between the two rounds between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen in 2022.
A few days before the first round of the legislative elections, Sunday June 30, and at the end of an ultra-short campaign, two televised debates will follow one another, this Tuesday June 25 and Thursday June 27.
Voting intentions already very polarized
“If we expect major electoral shifts, the chances of this happening are relatively slimconfirms the specialist in political communication, Philippe Riutort, senior professor at Henri IV (2). Voting intentions are already very polarized and there is little likelihood that, all of a sudden, a voter radically changes sides after having seen the debate. »
Despite all this “remains an important act of a campaign”, he insists. “It is also a three-party debate, which shows the tripartite nature of the political game. It won’t be easy to choose a winner. Especially since they risk calling out to each other. »
These appointments can also “have marginal effects on hesitant votersconfirms Jean-Yves Dormagen. We are perhaps facing the most undecided vote of the Ve Republic and the movements, even of a few points, could have very strong consequences with regard to the voting method – two-round majority – and taking into account the logic of qualification for the second round. » This qualification could be decided by a few hundred or dozens of votes.
Give the impression of being up to the task
“The three main camps are in positive dynamics: quite strong for the RN and its allies and the New Popular Front (NFP), smaller for Ensemble. It is also linked to the very reduced offer in the constituencies: there are approximately half as many candidates compared to 2022. And probably also to a useful voting logic which is engaged, continues Jean-Yves Dormagen. We really have three blocks of determined voters. The offers are so far apart that voters do not hesitate much. » Hence the importance of reaching out to the few undecided people.
“We will have to give the impression of being up to the task and mobilize our electorateagrees Philippe Riutort. This is an important issue for Gabriel Attal, because if the score of the list led by Valérie Hayer was low in the European elections, it is also because a part of the electorate which is favorable to him did not moved. And, today, a good part of this electorate does not understand the reasons for the dissolution. »
When asked about the scenario he imagines for this first debate, Jean-Yves Dormagen thinks that “the RN will probably play defense especially since if its coalition with LR is united on cultural and identity issues, on its hostility to migrants or on the need for more borders, it is very divided on economic questions”. He explains that part of the captured electorate joined him on promises ” from the left “ on purchasing power, wages and redistribution, but that the RN also recovered part of “Nicolas Sarkozy’s electorate” who is “who is against welfare, taxes…”
According to him, Gabriel Attal “should play the card of rejecting the extremes and appealing to moderates by claiming to be a safe haven”. For the NFP, “the challenge will first be to mobilize its electorate which is younger, more urban and more sensitive to abstention”.
Manuel Bompard more than the others
Philippe Riutort adds: “Everyone plays part of their credibility but perhaps Manuel Bompard more than the others. His presence in itself raises questions for the two other debaters who wanted to measure themselves against Jean-Luc Mélenchon. » He will surely be the target of attacks.
And the political communication specialist concludes with some advice: that everyone first seeks to address the French rather than the two other debaters. “Except for handing out a few spades and finding the right phrase. Everyone faces specific challenges vis-à-vis their electorate. »
Especially since the little sentences are, for once, even more marginal. « The “you do not have a monopoly on the heart” of Valéry Giscard d’Estaing, we remember him because he was elected. Otherwise, we would have forgotten this sentence. But we know that in the age of social networks, punchlines (shock sentences) are taken up. Above all, they have a reassuring effect within each camp. A way of telling yourself that your candidate “was good”. »
On TF1 then on France 2
> Tuesday June 25, from 9 p.m., live on TF1Manuel Bompard for the New Popular Front (NFP), Gabriel Attal for the outgoing presidential majority and Jordan Bardella for the National Rally (RN) will respond to Anne-Claire Coudray and Gilles Bouleau.
> Thursday June 27, from 8:50 p.m., on France 2, the debate will bring together Olivier Faure, Gabriel Attal and Jordan Bardella. It will be hosted by Caroline Roux and the candidates will also answer questions from the French.
