In its latest macroeconomic updates on Vietnam, Standard Chartered Bank forecasts that Vietnam’s GDP growth in the second quarter will moderate to a still strong 5.3% year-on-year (compared to 5.7% in the first quarter).
Hanoi, June 25 (VNA) – In its latest macroeconomic updates on Vietnam, Standard Chartered Bank forecasts Vietnam’s GDP growth in the second quarter to moderate to a still strong 5.3 percent year-on-year (compared to 5.7% in the first quarter).
According to economists at Standard Chartered, the bank expects retail sales growth to slow to 8.2% year-on-year in June (from 9.5% in May), and export growth to 14, 2% year-on-year in June (15.8% year-on-year) exports of electronic products will continue to improve since the start of the year.
Imports and industrial production are expected to grow by 26.0% year-on-year (29.9%) and 5.2% respectively in June. Inflation could reach 4.5% year-on-year in June (compared to 4.4% in May), marking a third consecutive month above 4%. Education, housing and building materials, health care and food have recently fueled inflation. This trend could continue in the coming months.
Tim Leelahaphan, Thailand and Vietnam economist at Standard Chartered Bank, said: “Despite the likely slowdown in the second quarter, we believe Vietnam’s recovery remains intact. However, economic challenges may persist in the third quarter amid growing pricing pressures, currency weakness and weak global demand.
The bank expects the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) to raise its refinancing rate by 50 basis points in the fourth quarter in response to rising inflation. The weak exchange rate supports the bank’s call for a hike in the fourth quarter, or perhaps sooner.- VNA
