Aaziz Oulmoudne
Economist
Covering a fixed basket comprising 546 items and 1,391 varieties, the CPI increased by 0.9% during the first five months of the year. According to Aaziz Oulmoudne, economist and expert, the rise in prices should continue in June at levels higher than the average of the last five months.
Year-on-year, the index for the first five months of the CPI increased by 0.9% compared to the same period of 2023. How do you read this increase?
This change essentially reflects the 0.4% increase in the price of food products at volatile prices with, in particular, price increases of 0.3% for food products and non-alcoholic drinks, and of 2.3% for alcoholic and non-alcoholic drinks. tobacco. For non-food products, the increase is 1.2%. As a reminder, the growth of the consumer price index (CPI) measures the annual percentage change in the latter in order to determine the inflation rate.
This rate reflects the change undergone by the prices paid by the average consumer during a given period when purchasing goods and services. Obviously, the basket of goods and services on which we base the calculations changes over time, due to changes in consumption habits. A growth in the CPI, without growth in income, inevitably leads to a reduction in purchasing power. Sometimes, official statistics tell us of a fall or rise in prices, but this is not necessarily what we feel given that inflation is felt differently by consumers and households.
To what extent does sentiment increase inflation?
Schwartzenberg’s quote rhymes perfectly with this scenario: “statistics are true about the disease and false about the patient; they are true regarding populations and false regarding individuals.” Indeed, the products and services listed do not represent personal consumption.
In addition, the weighting of goods and services in the basket does not correspond to each person’s consumption habits. Household purchasing power is affected by an increase in consumer prices, despite an increase in inflation of 0.9%.
In fact, this increase led to inflation perceived by consumers that was higher than measured inflation. This is explained by the fact that households are paying increased attention to their regular purchases. In recent years, the prices of food, gasoline and transportation, among others, have increased more than average inflation.
With the strong consumption period of Eid-Al Adha which coincides with the month of June, should we expect an increase in the index for this month, especially concerning food and non-food products?
In terms of prospects, the rise in prices should continue in June at levels higher than the average of the last five months. The effects of the drought, changes in consumption habits during the holiday period, as well as the arrival of Moroccans from around the world should further increase uncertainties regarding inflation.
Yassine Saber / ECO Inspirations
