Will Marine Le Pen be able to run for the next presidential election in 2027? What impact will the trial of the parliamentary assistants of Front National MEPs (now Rassemblement National) affair have on his career? In this trial, nine former FN European deputies are accused, including Marine Le Pen, for having hired and paid with European Union funds assistants who actually worked for the party. This Friday, at 8 p.m. on TF1, Marine Le Pen said: “It is my political death that is being demanded,” after the prosecutors’ requisitions. What exactly is it? France Bleu takes stock.
What is the next legal step?
On Wednesday, November 13, the requisitions from the prosecution, that is to say the point of view of the prosecution. Prosecutors requested a five-year ineligibility sentence against Marine Le Pen.
This Monday, November 18, the pleadings of the defense lawyers of Marine Le Pen and the 24 other defendants begin.
The end of the trial is scheduled for November 27. We will then know the date of the court’s decision, which will then be deliberated for several months.
The judgment is expected in early 2025.
What happens if Marine Le Pen is convicted?
It all depends on the sentence handed down. Here are several scenarios and their consequences:
- A prison sentence, with or without suspended sentence, which can theoretically last up to ten years. The prosecution, this Wednesday, requested five years in prison, three of which were suspended. Even if she is sentenced to prison, the politician will not necessarily go to prison, because the fixed part of the sentence can be adjusted. It can be done using an electronic bracelet.
- A fine. The prosecution demanded a fine of 300,000 euros (the maximum fine is 1 million). Against the National Rally, judged as a legal entity, it requested 4.3 million euros, including 2.3 million suspended, i.e. 2 million to be paid immediately and 2.3 million which will be paid if the party is condemned again .
- An additional penalty of ineligibility. It is mandatory in the event of conviction for embezzlement of public funds since the Sapin 2 law of December 2016. If the court does not want to pronounce it, it must expressly justify this in its judgment. On Wednesday, the prosecution requested this 5-year ineligibility sentence, but also requested that it be accompanied by a provisional execution, so that it would be effective even in the event of an appeal.
Will Marine Le Pen be able to run in the 2027 presidential election?
- In the event of “simple” ineligibility: probably. If the court pronounces simple ineligibility, and Marine Le Pen appeals, the sentence is suspended until the second trial. It is entirely possible that there will not be a final decision before 2027, given the delays in the proceedings at the Paris Court of Appeal and the Court of Cassation.
- In the event of ineligibility with provisional execution: no. The penalty will apply without delay, and will not be suspended in the event of an appeal. Marine Le Pen will not be able to run in the next presidential election, “nor to any other electoral mandate”, specifies constitutional expert Anne-Charlène Bezzina, lecturer at Sciences Po Paris and the University of Rouen.
What are the consequences for her mandate as a deputy?
Marine Le Pen has been an RN deputy for Pas-de-Calais since 2017. Even in the event of a conviction accompanied by ineligibility with provisional execution, there will be no effect on this mandate. It’s only “in the event of dissolution and early legislative elections” what “will not be able to show up”, recalls Anne-Charlène Bezzina.
Indeed, the Constitutional Council, consistently, refuses to strip parliamentarians sentenced to a sentence of ineligibility from their mandate, as long as the decision is not final. Local elected officials, for their part, lose their mandates immediately.
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