The gold price (XAU/USD) begins Friday with a negative trend on European markets. After hitting a low in two months, the precious metal is struggling to stabilize around $2,570, hampered by a American dollar robust and expectations of more restrictive monetary policies.
An economic context under tension
Investors are scrutinizing US economic data, notably the report on October retail salesexpected today. These indicators could refine the outlook on future decisions of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). The expected reduction in interest rates at a slower pace limits the appeal of gold, a non-yielding asset.
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The recent rebound of Producer price (PPI) accentuates this pressure. According to the US Bureau of Statistics, the index rose 2.4% in October, beating expectations. To this are added figures ofweekly jobs weaker, but still below forecasts, signaling economic resilience.
Geopolitics: potential support for gold
Despite these headwinds, growing tensions in Middle East and the persistent conflict between Ukraine and Russia continue to work in favor of the yellow metal, often perceived as a safe haven. An escalation in these regions could revive demand for gold, offsetting the negative effect of the strong dollar.
Technical analysis under surveillance
Technical analyzes suggest a bearish trend. The price remains near the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA), a key level. A lasting passage below this bar could cause gold to fall to $2,485, or even $2,353, the respective thresholds of last September and July. Conversely, a return above $2,665 would pave the way for a rebound up to $2,750.
Why does gold attract investors?
The history of gold goes beyond its simple decorative value. It is often chosen as hedge against inflation and declining currencies, providing protection in times of economic turmoil.
THE central banksmajor market players, use gold to diversify their reserves. In 2022, they have accumulated more than 1,136 tonnes, a historic record. Countries like China, India or Turkey are intensifying their acquisitions to strengthen their economic position.
A strategic correlation
The price of gold often moves inversely to American dollar and government bonds. When a weakening dollar looms, investors turn to gold to preserve the value of their assets. On the other hand, a recovery in stock markets can cause demand for this metal, considered a safe haven asset, to fall.
