Lebanon is losing a little more of its often abused sovereignty every day. Now, to talk about its future, around the still virtual discussion table, we have the United States, Israel, Iran, to a lesser extent, France, Qatar and the surprise, it is Russia. So far very discreet. Moscow has become, in a few weeks, essential for any settlement.
How? It's very simple. Genetically programmed to be a good chess player, Vladimir Putin now presents himself as guarantor of stopping the flow of arms, smuggling and money to Hezbollah via Syria. With scissors on the umbilical cord of the pro-Iranian militia in hand, he offers his services to the other interlocutors. According to some reports, the Russians have even deployed forces to the Syrian Golan as a show of seriousness.
Consequence? Columns of vehicles carrying members of Iran's Revolutionary Guards have reportedly been seen entering Iraq from Syria. It must be said that the Assad family regime is not unhappy to see Tehran's hold on its country loosen a little. Condition for reintegrating into the Arab fold and rebuilding a reputation for frequentability. It's not a win, but if you don't try, you get nothing.
Once we have said all that, there remains a question of size. What will Russia ask for in return for its aid? The range of compensations is quite complete. First, Ukraine. The famous Russian “special operation” launched in February 2022, which was supposed to last a few days, is a bitter failure which led to the death of hundreds of thousands of young Russians. Putin could find a more attentive ear in Donald Trump. A halt to American aid to Ukraine would cause the rout of Volodymyr Zelensky and his army. Also at stake is a relaxation of sanctions against Russia, taken by the European Union, which Donald Trump could easily twist his arm.
Then, in the region, it is noted that Russia maintains good relations with everyone. Israel, Iran, the Gulf countries, the Palestinians… all regularly take a detour through Moscow. As in the good old days of the Cold War, the Russian capital is now an obligatory stop. Another big piece: Iran. Moscow could be a “facilitator” in negotiations with mullahs, petrified by Israeli threats to put an end to their atomic dream.
Now that Iran has let go of the “axis of resistance” that it itself created, things are simpler.
Palestinians, same thing. Russia maintains excellent relations with all Palestinian factions, including Hamas. When it comes to discussing the future of Gaza and the West Bank, Russian mediation could prove valuable.
Even on China, Donald Trump's nightmare, Russia, very close to Beijing, will play a role.
Lebanon, whose tattered institutions increasingly hide their impotence, waits to the incessant sound of drones and raids. He is waiting to see what sauce he will be eaten with. The problem in all this is that the country risks becoming a small consolation prize on the sidelines of the big negotiation announced. Hezbollah continues to make an increasingly small segment of the population believe that everything is going very well for it. But the mass seems to be said. As Churchill said, success is going from failure to failure with always the same enthusiasm. The difference is that for him, it worked…
