Our football prediction expert gives you his best bets for Portugal Poland, counting for the 5th day of the Nations League, this Friday.
Portugal Poland prediction: bets, context and compositions
Best bets for Portugal Poland
- Handicap Portugal -1 ⭐ with odds of @3.75 on Unibet, equivalent to a probability of 26% that the Portuguese selection wins by at least two goals.
- Over 2.5 goals for Portugal ⭐ with odds of @1.88 on Unibet, indicating a probability of 53% that Martinez's team scores at least three goals during the match.
- Less than 0.5 goals for Poland ⭐ with odds of @1.69 on Unibet, representing a probability of 59% that Portugal keeps its clean sheet.
Portugal could win against Poland with a score of 3-0 in this UEFA Nations League match.
Odds are provided by Unibet at the time of publication and are subject to change.
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Our analysis: the state of form of the two teams
Portugal face Poland in their fifth UEFA Nations League match, aiming to clinch a place in the summer semi-finals. For those wishing to bet, check out our predictions for useful information.
Roberto Martinez failed to lead his team to victory at Euro 2024. The Portuguese were in excellent form before the tournament but were beaten by France in the quarter-final on penalties.
Portugal responded by winning three of their four Nations League matches. Cristiano Ronaldo remains a key piece of the attack, despite his lack of goals at the European Championship. He should lead the offense in Friday's game.
On the other hand, Poland did not achieve a victory at Euro 2024, their only point having been obtained against France before an elimination in the group stage.
Michal Probierz, who succeeded former Portugal manager Fernando Santos as Poland boss, led his team to the European Championship by beating Wales in the play-offs, but there is still much room for improvement before the qualifying for the World Cup.
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Probable squad numbers for Portugal Poland
The probable composition of Portugal:
Coast; Dalot, Araujo, Djalo, Cancelo; PALHADA, J. Neves, Fernandes ; Felix, Leao, Ronaldo.
The probable composition of Poland:
Roll ; Kiwior, Bednarek, Walukiewicz ; Frankowski, Szymanski, Oyedele, Zielinski, Zalewski ; Swiderski, Friday.
The best bets to take for Portugal Poland
Portugal vs Poland 1 prediction: Handicap Portugal -1 @3.75 on Unibet
Portugal have impressed under Roberto Martinez. The former Belgium coach has shifted the team's strategy from a focus on counter-attacking under Fernando Santos to one of dominating opponents.
Under Martinez, Portugal average 65% possession and have suffered just three defeats in 24 games. We therefore support their victory by at least two goals in this match.
Additionally, Poland remains on a three-game winless streak, including a disappointing 3-1 home loss to Portugal. The Poles have not won any of their last five confrontations with this opponent.
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Portugal vs Poland 2 prediction: Over 2.5 goals for Portugal @1.88 on Unibet
The second of our Portugal vs Poland predictions predicts that the home team will score over 2.5 goals. The goals keep coming for Portugal under Roberto Martinez, averaging 2.95 goals per game outside of major competitions. Here they face a permeable Polish defense.
Probierz's team conceded three goals in the first half when they hosted Croatia last month. Portugal scored three goals and created six scoring chances when they played Poland in the same round of international matches.
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Portugal vs Poland 3 prediction: Less than 0.5 goal for Poland @1.69 on Unibet
Roberto Martinez's team has shown an exceptional defensive record in the first months of his tenure. Although they have conceded more goals recently, they have the ability to regain their defensive solidity for this match. In 24 games under Martinez, Portugal conceded an average of 0.67 goals per game.
Poland will be without Robert Lewandowski for this match. The in-form Barcelona striker is out with a back injury, which is a big blow for the Polish attack.
Michal Probierz's side also failed to score in their last away match against Croatia, leading us to believe that Portugal will keep a clean sheet for our final prediction of this encounter.
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