The expected increase in episodes of temperatures above their historical average in Belgium should have “a moderate upward effect” on food inflation, with a more pronounced incidence during the summer months, according to an analysis published Wednesday by the National Bank of Belgium (BNB) while COP29 is being held in Baku.
Climate change does not spare Europe and our country, and is accompanied by more frequent intense weather phenomena, such as heat waves, intense precipitation, storms… The rise in mercury also appears more pronounced in the Old -Continent. Thus, the moving average annual temperature over 30 years had already increased by +2.3°C in Belgium on average in 2023 compared to the period 1850-1900.
A moderate upward effect
The BNB’s analysis, which is based on “a theoretical extrapolation from existing studies”, predicts that the expected increase in episodes of temperatures above their historical average in Belgium should have a moderate upward effect on food inflation. , with a more pronounced incidence during the summer months. In addition, the expected increase in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and periods of drought in the coming years reinforces the risk of accelerating food inflation in Belgium in summer.
In addition, Belgium imports a large part of its agricultural products from neighboring countries, such as Spain or Italy, where climate change could have even more pronounced effects on food prices. This exposes our country to additional food inflation through the trade channel, further underlines the BNB study.
Belgium
