On Saturday, November 9, fighters from the Polisario Front, supported by Algeria to obtain their independence, attempted to attack a gathering of civilians in the town of Mahbes, in Western Sahara under Moroccan control. The five attackers were killed before causing any casualties, but the episode occurred in a context of very strong tensions between Rabat and Algiers, who have been fighting over the sovereignty of the region since 1975. Fighting took place there, killing thousands of victims, until a ceasefire in 1991 under the aegis of the UN.
But this ceasefire is fragile, as evidenced by Saturday’s attack. The UN Security Council, in a resolution at the end of October, said “ deeply worried » by the breakdown of the ceasefire in the region in recent months and “ by violations of agreements concluded with the United Nations “. The Council “ calls once again on Morocco, the Polisario Front, Algeria and Mauritania to cooperate more intensively with each other ” in order to “ move forward towards a political solution ».
“Algeria’s desire to start a war”
Probably not enough to reduce the pressure. On Friday, the Moroccan Minister of Foreign Affairs, Nasser Bourita, declared that “ indicators attest to Algeria’s desire to start a war in the region “. According to him, war would be Algiers’ only response to what he considers to be “ acquired by Rabat on the international scene on the Sahara issue », including in particular the recognition by Spain and France of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara.
« Cross-border tensions between Morocco and Algeria remain high, and any incident could trigger a real crisis in North Africa, presenting a disastrous scenario, capable of destabilizing the fragile balance in the region. », Estimated the Italian think tank IARI at the beginning of September. Algerian troops and heavy equipment were reportedly redeployed in October in the Tindouf sector, near Western Sahara.
Planes, missiles, tanks…
While both countries are officially doing their best to avoid conflict, in reality they have been preparing for it for a long time. Morocco voted to increase its defense budget by 7% in 2025, it is even 10% for Algeria. In September, Morocco purchased American AGM-154C glide missiles to arm its F-16 planes. Before the summer, the kingdom had already signed for 18 American HIMARS missile launchers, which had proven themselves in Ukraine. Rabat is also seeking to acquire new tanks, such as Czech T-72s or Israeli Merkava Mk3s.
Algeria is not left out: the country has just signed for 14 Russian Su-34 attack fighters. And the Algerian army presented its new Iskander-E short-range ballistic missile system, also Russian, at the beginning of November.
