On the agenda of the summit of the main Western countries, today and tomorrow in Italy, is aid to Ukraine; or more precisely, how to protect support for Ukraine from the possible victory of Donald Trump. We must now add: and the risk of the extreme right in Europe, and particularly in France.
Diplomats have been working for weeks on an unprecedented G7 plan, which aims to lend an additional $50 billion to Ukraine, without putting the burden on national economies. The trick lies in an unprecedented arrangement: the loan will be repaid by the interest on Russian assets frozen in Europe at the start of the invasion of Ukraine.
We are talking about colossal sums here: some 300 billion dollars frozen for more than two years. There has been extensive debate about whether this sum could be used to help Ukraine directly. But the main European countries, including France, opposed it, fearing to create a precedent, and to scare away capital placed in Europe by third countries.
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But this immobilized money generates interest, between 3 and 5 billion per year, which does not belong to Russia, and which will therefore be used to repay the G7 loan.
It’s complex, but politically skillful
This makes it possible to avoid political blockages: we remember that American aid to Ukraine was blocked for months by elected Republicans in Congress, before a compromise was found. During his meeting with President Zelensky last week in Paris, Joe Biden apologized to him for this delay which seriously handicapped the Ukrainian army. Europe also has its blockages, with the always troubled game of Viktor Orban, the Hungarian Prime Minister.
These 50 billion which will be discussed at the G7 anticipate Ukrainian economic and military needs, after the considerable aid already decided this year. But the uncertain outcome of the November election in the United States calls for caution. We call it “Trump-proofing”, that is to say protection against Trump. All countries in the world are now engaged in “Trump-proofing”, to minimize the risk of a sudden change of course in Washington.
This G7 plan, which was imagined with Donald Trump in mind, can just as easily apply to the risk posed by the European extreme right in aid to Ukraine.
The paradox is that this plan will be examined in Italy, during a Summit chaired by the head of the Italian government, Giorgia Meloni, herself on the far right of the political spectrum. But since coming to power twenty months ago, she has unfailingly supported aid programs for Ukraine, including by delivering weapons.
But Ms. Meloni does not belong to the same European parliamentary group as the French National Rally, which has long displayed greater proximity to Russia, now on the back burner.
If the G7 loan project to Ukraine financed by interest from Russian assets is adopted, no one will say publicly that it aims to anticipate the American election deadline. But “Trump-proofing” will be on everyone’s minds, with now also the beginnings of “Le Pen or Bardella-proofing”.
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