Oil falling, fears of a trade war between Beijing and Washington

Around 10:50 a.m. GMT (11:50 a.m. CET), the price of a barrel of Brent BRENT Brent, or North Sea crude, is a variation of crude oil serving as a benchmark in Europe, listed on the InterContinentalExchange (ICE), a stock exchange specializing in energy trading. It became the first international standard for setting oil prices. from the North Sea, for delivery in January, loses 1,61% has 74,41 dollars.

Its American equivalent, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI WTI West Texas Intermediate (WTI), also called Texas Light Sweet, is a variation of crude oil that serves as a standard in setting the price of crude and as a raw material for oil futures contracts with the Nymex (New York Mercantile Exchange). ), the stock exchange specializing in energy.), for delivery in December, drop of 1,88%has 72,25 dollars.

“Chinese goods exported to the United States are worth between $400 billion and $500 billion per year“, which makes Donald Trump’s country China’s first trading partner, recalls John Evans of PVM.

The future Republican president threatened during his campaign to apply customs duties of 60% on American imports of Chinese products, a possibility which would seriously harm Beijing. “Economists estimate that such strict measures would cost 2 points of GDP” to China, explains the analyst.

The Asian giant is the world’s leading oil importer and the health of its economy directly influences the price of black gold.

China is already struggling with a laborious post-Covid recovery, weighed down by sluggish consumption and a severe real estate crisis. In recent weeks, the country has been accumulating recovery announcements, but “market reaction shows that operators do not view these measures as a way to stimulate consumption, but rather as a way to avoid a financial crisis in China“, explains Kathleen Brooks, analyst at XTB.

Other effects of a Donald Trump presidency on oil are harder to measure.

The Republican is a strong defender of fossil fuels and the market expects favorable conditions for American producers, which would lead to even more abundant supply from the United States.

But prices could be pushed up by the possibility of sanctions.”stricter measures against Iran and Venezuela under the Trump administration, as well as potential conflicts in the Middle East“, posing an increased risk on the supply of crude, recalls John Plassard, analyst at Mirabaud, to explain the uncertainty on the market since the results of the election.

(c) AFP

Commenter Oil falling, fears of a trade war between Beijing and Washington