What makes the outcome of this election more painful for the Democrats is the fact that Donald Trump also won the popular vote. This dimension is purely symbolic, since this vote has no impact on the result, but it means that, this time, a majority of voters preferred the Republican to the Democrat. Like Al Gore defeated in 2000, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016 by a large margin (nearly three million votes). This incongruity called into question the archaic American electoral system, while today, we can only endorse the judgment of Liz Cheney, the daughter of the former Republican vice-president who rallied Kamala Harris: “The system democracy of our nation worked last night.”
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Uncertainties for Congress
The Democrats' dismay is also increased by the possibility of a parallel rout in Congress. They knew it would be very difficult, if not impossible, to maintain their majority in the Senate, because they were defending more seats than the Republicans, and several of them, in states won by Donald Trump, were under threat. This fear has materialized, with a gain of three seats which guarantees the Republican Party to have at least 52 seats out of 100.
There was therefore only the House of Representatives where everything remained possible on Wednesday, with around forty seats still to be filled. The stakes were enormous since an additional defeat would give all the levers of power to Donald Trump and the Republicans: White House, House and Senate, without forgetting the Supreme Court, already infiltrated by the judges appointed by the former President, who will have the possibility of designating others if a vacation is declared there. Otherwise, the Democrats will find themselves in the situation that was that of the Republicans, with the power to block the initiatives of the White House or to monetize their possible support.
“It’s the economy, stupid”
We are right to wonder how the Democrats got there, especially since Donald Trump led a sometimes chaotic campaign, he appeared more than ever incoherent, mentally disturbed and clearly senile, and he has never been so crude and vulgar – even going so far as to mime fellatio during one of his meetings. He has shown himself to be as sparing as ever in explaining the policies he intends to pursue, beyond the simplistic slogans he likes. Largely losing the televised debate which pitted him against Kamala Harris on September 10, he refused to consider a second one.
It is undeniable, however, that the election was first decided on concrete themes and, to begin with, on the economy, in its implications on the daily lives of Americans: inflation, purchasing power , the cost of energy (and especially gasoline, in a country where the car is king), access to housing… The famous slogan of the democratic consultant James Carville, “It's the economy, stupid”, which had ensured Bill Clinton's victory in 1992, was more relevant than ever, with the economy cited as the top reason for concern, by far, by a majority of voters across the country.
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Four more years of Biden
Kamala Harris suffered from her association with Joe Biden, with Republicans banking on the weariness or resentment of a majority of Americans to proclaim: “No to four more years of Biden presidency”. Like others before her (only five outgoing vice-presidents have been elected since the war), Harris did not manage to sufficiently distance herself from her former boss, which was, it is true, a delicate and complicated exercise because Joe Biden's record is far from bad, quite the contrary.
This is particularly the case with the economic situation. Donald Trump was elected in particular because he promised to “restore the economy”, while, according to the “Wall Street Journal” (a conservative newspaper…), Joe Biden will leave his successor with an economy in great shape . The weekly “The Economist” estimated, for its part, that with unemployment at 4% and an average per capita income of $85,000, “America is already great, and has no need to become great again.” – an allusion to Trump’s eternal slogan, “Make America Great Again.”
Les “single issue voters”
More generally, Donald Trump benefited from the support of those called “single issue voters”. They do not necessarily have sympathy or esteem for the candidate, it even happens that they loathe him, but one point of his program decisively rallies them. This could be the promise to curb illegal immigration, to reduce taxes or, in the case of conservative Christians in particular, to oppose abortion.
The defense of the right to abortion, which had been the strength of the Democrats in the mid-term legislative elections in 2022, a few months after the repeal of this right on a national scale by the Supreme Court, was no longer, this time, the hobby horse on which Kamala Harris' team was banking so much – the leitmotif of the campaign was “Freedom”, including that of carrying a pregnancy to term or not. Perhaps because the voters concerned believed that this right could be sufficiently protected by constitutional adjustments at the state level. Eight referendum initiatives were organized precisely in this direction on Tuesday, on the sidelines of the presidential election. The failure of one of these referendums, in Florida, has, however, shown the limits of such a calculation: abortion will remain prohibited there in practice.
Under these conditions, the female vote, which could have been decisive, was not. Added to this is a perennial question: are Americans ready to elect a woman, especially a woman of color? The answer is obviously no if we judge both by the result and by the attitude of Donald Trump and his entourage. From Elon Musk, in particular, who significantly called on men to shake themselves up. “The cavalry is on the march,” he tweeted Tuesday. “Men are voting in record numbers. They now realize everything is at stake.”
“It’s the paradox. Those who voted for Donald Trump will be the first victims of his economic policies”
Joe Biden's share of responsibility
Hillary Clinton had already encountered the famous “glass ceiling” and Kamala Harris was less well prepared. History will judge the share of responsibility that falls to Joe Biden in this failure. The President's refusal to consider a single term from the start, due to his age, prevented his succession from being best prepared, either by giving Harris presidential stature or by allowing the primaries to bring out a more solid contender. . Her vain stubbornness to stay in the race then forced the Vice-President to improvise a candidacy which had barely more than three months to convince. Mission impossible as we see.
International issues also weighed in the balance. By trying to reconcile support for Israel and compassion for the Palestinians, Joe Biden and, even more so, Kamala Harris have alienated both the vote of Americans of Arab origin and that of Jews worried about a rise in anti-Semitism in the United States as a lack of solidarity with the Jewish state, America's first ally in the world. This double desertion must have deprived the Democrats of crucial votes in “swing states” like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Paradoxically, Iran, which thus contributed to the loss of Kamala Harris by sponsoring the pogroms of October 7, 2023, will find itself with its worst enemy in the White House.
To a lesser extent, the war in Ukraine may also have diverted voters from the Democratic candidate. If the Republicans have little consideration for Vladimir Putin, unlike their President, many of them do not appreciate the fact that billions of dollars are being paid to Volodymyr Zelensky to finance a war effort which they have difficulty seeing. the interest and even less the link with the security of the United States, even though this money, for the most part, does not go to kyiv, but into the coffers of the American arms industry.
The lie is the truth
Finally, while Kamala Karris gave her rallies a festive dimension with prestigious showbiz guests (at the risk of appearing more qualified to host a festival than to lead the world's leading power and command its army), Donald Trump, while blithely delirious and by continually losing the thread of his remarks, bludgeoned simple, understandable and effective slogans (“On the first day of my presidency, I will organize the largest deportation of migrants ever seen”…). He delivered the most perfect illustration of George Orwell's terrible words: “Political language is intended to make lies credible, murders respectable, and to give the appearance of solidity to what is only wind.”
Because the main lesson to be learned from Donald Trump's victory is this: in America, as in Europe where populism has also taken root, lies and truth now have the same value in the eyes of millions of voters. . And, even more worrying, press bosses, and not the least important ones, have reinforced this perception by abdicating their obligation to enlighten the public. By prohibiting the “Washington Post”, which he owns, from officially supporting a candidate, as was tradition, Jeff Bezos sent the message that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump were, ultimately, candidates equally competent and respectable.
