by Corneel Vanfleteren
published on Wednesday November 6, 2024 has 08:33 •
4 min read
Key information
- Kamala Harris wins a few more voters, but that doesn't allow her to catch up.
- It can no longer afford to lose the key state of Pennsylvania.
- Nor should the Northern states go to Trump if Harris still wants to win.
Kamala Harris appears poised to lose the presidential election. She can still win, but she no longer has room for error.
In the news: Kamala Harris wins a few more voters, but it has little impact.
- As expected, Harris won the state of New Hampshire, which added 4 electoral votes. No surprise: New Hampshire has been a Democratic stronghold for 20 years.
- Nebraska stands out from other states: the votes of the electors are distributed partially proportionally. 2 electoral votes are awarded to the overall winner, as in the rest of the United States. In addition, the 3 districts also deliver one man from the electoral college each. Trump wins in Nevada and two districts. He therefore obtains 4 electoral votes, Harris one.
- In Maine, Trump also brings an additional electorate, since they are also proportionally distributed there.
- This brings the total number of electors to 248 for Trump and 214 for Harris. At 270 electoral votes, a candidate is certain to win.
Follow up : Harris can still win, but she has to win the Northern states.
- Harris can no longer afford to lose the key state of Pennsylvania. If she does not win the 19 electors in this state, she will not reach the 270 necessary.
- The northern states must also return to him. There are fewer electoral votes to distribute in these states, which allows several scenarios to be considered.
- If Harris loses Michigan (15 voters), she must win Arizona and Nevada (16 voters between them).
- If she loses Wisconsin (10 electoral votes), she must win Arizona (11 electoral votes).
- Harris must win at least two of the three northern states (Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan), in addition to Pennsylvania, if she still wants to become president. While all the votes have not yet been counted, she is in the lead in Minnesota. Trump leads in Wisconsin and Michigan. He has the advantage.
Victory was not a foregone conclusion
The reactions: Harris appears to be preparing for defeat.
Harris will not speak again today, according to her campaign manager. She will return to Howard University in Washington DC tomorrow to address not only her supporters, but also the country.
Harris wants to wait until all votes are counted. University students, however, remain combative. “But it shows how important it is to vote, because many thought victory was a foregone conclusion. They didn't realize how close the race would be,” student Awa Fall told the AP news agency.
