Where have those who were afraid of Donald Trump gone?

Analysis

Remember, in 2016, the streets across the country were set ablaze to block the path of the populist bulldozer. Today, the Republican candidate seems spared. A “striking observation”, at a time when “Americans are no longer shocked and stunned” by Donald Trump.

On June 3, 2016, in southern California in the afternoon, an egg landed on the peroxided skull of Rachel Casey. This young bodybuilder, physiotherapist and supporter of candidate Donald Trump admitted a few hours later to having also thrown two or three shells at her attackers.

The anecdote will be taken up by the entire media team dispatched to the site. That day, thousands of demonstrators had the word to spoil the meeting of the Republican billionaire, drawn in the city of San José. And Rachel won’t be the only target whose forehead will have to be wiped.

Four months later, the New York tycoon will be elected president of the United States. However, during the twenty-four months preceding his accession, and with a violence unprecedented in recent history, the new king of the world had faced a dense, fierce, enduring opposition.

Throughout the United States.

Examples? On July 9, 2015, clashes broke out in front of the Trump International Hotel, calling for a boycott of his television shows. On July 12, October 14, November 7 or December 4, 2015, demonstrators managed to interrupt the candidate’s speech, sometimes forcing him to be exfiltrated or to spread threats and insults of which he remained very fond:

The clashes will increase in brutality in 2016, as the Republican approaches the White House. At that time, we also slowly became aware that the former television entertainer was forming a real militia, at his command, responsible for physically attacking enemy crowds during his meetings. Even promising to pay any legal costs in the event of serious slippage.

We know that a presidential race is always a boxing match in the ring of metaphors. The candidates “put on the gloves”, “face each other”, send each other “uppercuts”, “demolish the opponent”. However, eight years ago, and under the voluntary leadership of the billionaire, the United States moved from theory to practice. Blood will flow, citizens will end up in hospital, cars and flags will burn, riots will be daily.

Between June 2015 and November 2016, the Latino electorate, the LGBT and pro-abortion movements, the Jewish community and a large segment of American university youth fought until the last breath to block the path of this Donald Trump which (already) threatened democracy and institutions. Which (already) dehumanized immigration and women’s bodies. A war which will ultimately be lost by Hillary Clinton, at the polls, to the great surprise of many political observers.

Where are the anti-Trump people?

Today, after a turbulent first term, a violently contested defeat in 2020, the promise of an even more radical policy, and threats of revenge, Donald Trump is determined to regain power. And in eight years, several events will lastingly worsen the polarization of the country: the Covid-19 pandemic, the aggression of Ukraine by Vladimir Putin, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict or even the legal setbacks of a Republican candidate who, since his recent criminal conviction, has nothing more to lose.

We could therefore reasonably expect demonstrations throughout the country, calls for boycotts, riots, petitions, punitive expeditions against the return to business of the populist bulldozer. However, for the moment, this is not the case. It’s true, it happens that signs timidly go up in front of the courts that Trump has been frequenting assiduously for several months. That harmless mockery targets him on social networks. But nothing significant. Nothing compares to the uprisings of 2016.

What changed?

By making a few phone calls on both sides of the Atlantic, we realize that beyond the observation, the explanations are not always clear: “It’s a very good question and… I don’t have no answer. It is often difficult to explain what is not happening,” whispers an expert from the United States. Others nevertheless venture to sketch out avenues, like Anne Deysine: “It’s true that the contrast is striking. While Democrats are still viscerally opposed to Trump and are worried about the danger he poses for democracy,” analyzes this French lawyer and Americanist for Watson.

A theory shared by several major American media, suggesting that the anti-Trump people of 2016 have “changed tactics”. That they would even be “demoralized”, “tired” of fighting Trump in the streets for a decade. And that they focus on the participation rate on November 5th. The fact that the Republican candidate is now publicly called a “delinquent” by Joe Biden himself does not seem to change the situation.

It’s a reality: the progressive fringe of the American electorate no longer disrupts the appearances of the Republican candidate and has turned its anger against the Democratic president: “All the people who were protesting against Trump, many of these people and a lot of this energy are now focused on the protest against a genocide in Gaza”, testified for example to the AP agency.

For her part, Anne Deysine admits not fully understanding this paradox, before placing a large portion of responsibility on the shoulders of the Biden clan:

One thing is certain, the Democratic candidate will never be able to fully satisfy the pro-Palestinian American electorate.

Dangerous weariness

The prospect of a new Biden-Trump duel from another time and which does not excite many people, also explains the ambient calm, five months before the presidential election. A “weariness” which could prove “dangerous”, Nicole Bacharian admits to us.

A few days before the European elections, the control of the extreme right, particularly in France with Jordan Bardella, is not giving rise to waves of revolt in the streets of Paris. Conversely, the interview of Benjamin Netanyahu by Darius Rochebin last week drowned the TF1 headquarters with the fury of French pro-Palestinian activists and elected officials. In other words, “reading the dangers of the world has changed dramatically since 2016.”

This weariness has also infected the opposing camp. MAGA supporters do not necessarily appear more motivated than progressives when it comes to hitting the streets. While the billionaire called on his base to “peacefully protest” in front of the Manhattan court, red caps were rare during the trial. Worse still, several popular Telegram groups found themselves full of doubts, pushing some activists to question the boss’s marching orders:

– “Protest OK, but does that mean concretely?”
– “He should be clearer in his requests.”
– “It’s a bad idea to protest now.”

Ali Alexander, one of the main pro-Trump originators of the “stolen election” theory in 2020, has just announced his “retirement”, noted Time Magazine. Of course, the second KissCool effect of the attack on the Capitol also chilled more than one, since three years after the riots, more than a thousand attackers have already been sentenced to very dissuasive prison sentences.

Who will benefit from this void?

Already, nothing tells us that this yawning of a large part of the Democratic electorate will last until November 5. Without forgetting that Donald Trump’s legal agenda still has the means to wake up some of them. Should we expect protests or riots in the next five months?

Our two interlocutors agree on one thing: this state of passive wakefulness will not be without consequences and some activists could wake up with a nasty hangover on November 6.