French Ambassador to the United States during Donald Trump's victory in 2016, Gérard Araud analyzes the possible impacts of a second presidential term for the Republican candidate.
“A world is collapsing,” you wrote, French ambassador to the United States, in 2016, after the election of Donald Trump. Should we expect such an upheaval if he wins on November 5 (night of the 5th to the 6th in France)?
In 2016, there was Trump and Brexit, it was the revelation of populism across the Western world. That was my interpretation. Perhaps I should not have written this tweet, at the same time, all events have confirmed it: populism is there, everywhere, and it has remained. If Trump is elected, it will further prove to us that this is the case.
But we tend to imagine a second term on the basis of the first, when it risks being worse. Because Trump is tougher, more confident and he has become radicalized, he is vindictive, convinced that the election was stolen from him in 2020. He will want revenge. However, when he came to power, he knew nothing and no one and was therefore obliged to surround himself with classic conservatives who have since left. Trump wants to surround himself this time with people who think like him and will not try to contain him. It is, moreover, unpredictable. He could very well pursue a policy that is completely the opposite of the first term. We risk having surprises.
How would his victory reshuffle the cards at international level? First issue: does he have the means to force Zelensky into a negotiation in the form of capitulation?
Yes, the Russians are advancing on the ground, the Ukrainians are tired. I fail to see how the Ukrainians and Europeans could resist a Russian-American agreement. He said he would resolve the issue within 24 hours and stop support for kyiv. Will he strike an agreement with the Russians at the expense of the Ukrainians? But Putin may also want the whole pie, and not just the piece Trump will give him.
The second question is that of European defense. NATO's credibility rests on the American guarantee, which will be weakened or disappear. Putin may wonder one morning whether Trump will go to war to defend Estonia; the answer is no. Would we have the energy, the strength, the unity to come to his aid?
The third subject is trade. Trump wants to impose tariffs. And tech bosses like Elon Musk and Peter Thiel will tell him that the Europeans have passed legislation (digital, AI) against American companies and that they must therefore be punished so that they give up. We risk having punitive customs duties and a trade war. However, large French companies need the American market.
Would Netanyahu be strengthened in the Middle East?
Trump was the most pro-Israeli American president in history, which is saying something. He even transferred his ambassador to Jerusalem.
We can wonder today if Netanyahu is not going to obtain from Trump what he could not obtain from Biden: a military operation targeting Iranian nuclear power. That's the danger. But in all of Trump's faults, there is no warmongering, he does not wage war.
The US economy has performed relatively well under Biden, but inflation is taking its toll. What would be the Trump effect?
The economy has done very well under Trump. There was 3.5% growth, 3% unemployment and the lowest wages were starting to rise. Without Covid, he was re-elected.
The deficit has no importance for him, he has increased it. There will be tax cuts. As the economy is doing well, there should be strong growth, but inflationary under the effect of protectionism: the price of customs duties is transferred to the consumer.
Could climate skeptic Trump slow down efforts on the environment?
He considers that there is no warming. He will appoint Elon Musk to further dismantle all regulations, administrations, the climate agenda will be trampled.
Another important issue is immigration. Can we expect unprecedented aggressiveness in this area?
Yes. Kamala Harris can still win, but if she loses the election, it could be on the economy, but also on immigration. Everyone considers that Joe Biden's policy was a failure in this area.
Could the possible return of Trump, his links with dictatorships, also raise the question of a decline in democracy?
This is one of the Democrats' arguments and they are fundamentally right. The man adores dictators, he has no respect for institutions. I am also sure that he will launch an investigation into the 2020 elections. Perhaps he will even try to prosecute Joe Biden himself.
It can, in fact, erode rights, but inside the country, there are still counter-powers at play. The federated states, half of which are democratic, have powers and a truly independent justice system.
Could we still see a decline in new rights after abortion?
The administration, under the Democrats, introduced a number of regulations for gender equality, gay rights. It can completely make these laws disappear. And there will undoubtedly be an offensive: in many universities, they have introduced wokist legislation to ensure diversity among professors and students. With lessons also focused on this subject. He could, in fact, try to push the universities back on this point.
Would his victory have an impact on the legal proceedings against him?
There are four major trials today. Two are federal: one in Florida on the documents he took from the Banche House, the other in Washington for the January 6 affair.
As President, he can pardon himself, so these two federal trials will disappear. But he remains subject to two trials, the first (the purchased silence of porn actress Stormy Daniels, Editor's note) has already taken place in New York, the judge must pronounce the sentence. The other will take place in Georgia, over attempts to rig the 2020 elections.
I imagine he will ask the Supreme Court to recognize his immunity while in office.
