Paris: TotalEnergies foresees a peak in global oil consumption at best after 2030, in the most likely scenarios, according to its annual report on the evolution of the global energy system, published one week before the COP29 climate conference. The annual UN climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan (November 11-22) must conclude with a new target for financial aid to developing countries, so that they can reduce their greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change caused by fossil fuels (coal, oil, gas).
Just after the International Energy Agency (IEA) last month, the 4th largest oil and gas major in the world was also keen to present its vision of the energy world of tomorrow.
For its 6th edition, its report examines the prospects for the evolution of the global energy system according to three possible decarbonization scenarios by 2050, a key milestone in the fight against climate change.
The first, based on current policies, and the 2nd, intermediate, both lead to a rise in the planet's temperature well beyond 2 degrees compared to the pre-industrial era. Only the scenario of “rupture“, is aligned with the Paris agreements, that is to say allowing the achievement of a rise in temperatures of less than 2 degrees by 2100.
However, in the first two scenarios, TotalEnergies does not foresee a peak in oil demand before the end of the current decade, contrary to IEA forecasts. Among the reasons, the group cites the increase in energy demand in developing countries and persistent obstacles in the energy transition, including in rich countries, between insufficient investments in electricity networks and lower penetration of electric cars. than expected.
“Today, we still have less than 20% of electric vehicles in the vehicle sales mix in Europe“, declared Aurélien Hamelle, Managing Director Strategy & Sustainability at TotalEnergies.
In its base scenario, TotalEnergies therefore foresees a peak in oil demand.rather around 2035“, followed by a high plateau and a “decline which is very slow“.
Oil demand would still reach around 90 million barrels per day in 2050, barely less than the 104 million barrels of oil consumed every day today, according to OPEC forecasts for 2024. In the intermediate scenario, the peak would occur “just after 2030“, and in the breakup scenario, “a little before 2030“.
(c) AFP
Commenter For TotalEnergies, oil demand will increase at least until 2030
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