American presidential election: Israel, Gaza, Lebanon… What could happen in the Middle East if Donald Trump or Kamala Harris are elected?

American presidential election: Israel, Gaza, Lebanon… What could happen in the Middle East if Donald Trump or Kamala Harris are elected?
American presidential election: Israel, Gaza, Lebanon… What could happen in the Middle East if Donald Trump or Kamala Harris are elected?

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What do Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump propose on the wars in the Middle East?

Donald Trump: unconditional support for Israel tinged with ambiguities

On the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Trump claims a record that he considers historic with the recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and the moving of the American embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.

He also recognized Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, but it is above all the Abraham Accords, normalization between Israel and several Arab countries, that he considers one of his greatest diplomatic successes.

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Trump harshly criticizes the management of Joe Biden, whom he accuses of having “betrayed” Israel. After the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023, he reaffirmed his “total and unconditional” support for the Jewish state.

However, his recent statements have sometimes surprised, notably when he described Hezbollah as “very intelligent” or criticized Benjamin Netanyahu. He also promises to reinstate sanctions against Iran and increase military support for Israel, while limiting humanitarian aid to the Palestinians.

Kamala Harris: the difficult balance between support for Israel and protection of civilians

Echoing, again, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris has continually reiterated her “unwavering support” for Israel and its security. In one year, the country spent nearly $18 billion to help the Jewish state. Strongly criticized even within her electorate for this position of principle, the vice-president nevertheless declared that she wanted to end the war in Gaza and Lebanon in return for the release of the Israeli hostages.

But no details on the ceasefire project, on which she claims to work “tirelessly” alongside the American president, have been communicated. A plan for the gradual withdrawal of Israeli troops from populated areas of the Gaza Strip would be considered. Showing herself to be more empathetic than the current tenant of the White House, the candidate expressed her “concern” for the civilian deaths in the Palestinian enclave and for the humanitarian situation and the destruction which she considers “catastrophic”.

“I will not remain silent,” she promised, repeatedly declaring herself in favor of a two-state solution.

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